Notable Polls Find Good News for Obama

The financial crisis apparently has been good for Senator Barack Obama’s polling numbers.
Notable Polls Find Good News for Obama
Sen. Obama has called on global finance ministers to take coordinated action to offset the effects of the global financial crisis. (Dan Sanchez/The Epoch Tmes)
10/10/2008
Updated:
10/1/2015
<a><img src="https://www.theepochtimes.com/assets/uploads/2015/09/obobo.jpg" alt="Sen. Obama has called on global finance ministers to take coordinated action to offset the effects of the global financial crisis. (Dan Sanchez/The Epoch Tmes)" title="Sen. Obama has called on global finance ministers to take coordinated action to offset the effects of the global financial crisis. (Dan Sanchez/The Epoch Tmes)" width="320" class="size-medium wp-image-1833404"/></a>
Sen. Obama has called on global finance ministers to take coordinated action to offset the effects of the global financial crisis. (Dan Sanchez/The Epoch Tmes)

WASHINGTON D.C.—The financial crisis apparently has been good for Senator Barack Obama’s polling numbers. The Obama-Biden ticket has risen 3 percentage points between Oct. 2 and Oct. 9 to a majority of 51 percent, while the McCain-Palin ticket slid 3 points to 41 percent, according to the uniquely bipartisan George Washington University (GWU) Battleground Poll.

The Friday poll found that Sen. John McCain still maintains a comfortable lead (57 percent to 35 percent) as the candidate viewed as more able to keep America safe and secure.

GWU sponsors the bipartisan poll, which is conducted weekly in the last months of the campaign. For the Republicans, the Tarrance Group, and, for the Democrats, Lake Research Partners—both vouch for the results.

The respondents to this rolling national tracking poll were likely voters in the upcoming presidential election. The 10-point spread between Sens. Obama and McCain is a few points higher than other recent, reliable surveys, but Daniel Gotoff, statistician for the Lake Research Partners, said their tracking has also been less at times than other national polls and that “anyway, the important thing to note is the trend.”

The shift among white women was dramatic. On Thursday, Sept. 11, 55 percent supported Sen. McCain and 37 percent, Sen. Obama. By Oct. 9, it has become 40 percent for Sen. McCain and 50 percent for Sen. Obama.

Sen. McCain still retains a lead in which candidate best represents “a strong leader,” but that lead is diminished in the latest tracking poll. In the Sept. 11 results, Sen. McCain was chosen by 51 percent on this question compared to 37 percent who said Sen. Obama best represents a strong leader. Friday’s report has seen a change: 46 percent for Sen. McCain, 43 percent, Sen. Obama—a difference that is within the margin of error.

Sen. Obama is perceived as best representing the quality that “will unite the country” by 20 points: 53 percent for Sen. Obama to Sen. McCain’s 33 percent, a difference that has not changed in the last month.

The two candidates were virtually tied four weeks ago on who “will keep America prosperous.” On Friday, Sen. Obama had opened a lead of 13 points on this question with 49 percent choosing Sen. Obama to Sen. McCain’s 36 percent.

On who best represents the quality that “will create jobs,” McCain dropped from 39 to 32 percent from Sept. 11 to Oct. 9, while Obama’s numbers rose significantly from 32 to 55 percent. The economy is “owned” by Obama now, concluded Democrat pollster Celinda Lake, founder of Lake Research Partners.

But this may have less to do with the individual candidates than what the party says Republican strategist Ed Goeas of the Tarrance Group, who pointed out that two-thirds of the population blame the Republicans for the crisis.

“The financial crisis was the equivalent of a terrorist attack,” said Mr. Goeas in a telephone conference call on Friday, regarding the survey.

McCain is still holding on to his significant lead on who is best to “keep America safe and secure.” There has been no change since Sept. 11, 2008 when it was 57 percent. Obama’s numbers show little improvement: 33 percent in Sept. 11 to 35 percent on Friday.

McCain may not be helped by his running mate. Gov. Sarah Palin’s unfavorable percent increased to 46 percent last Friday, two points shy of her favorability rating of 48 percent. Sen. Joe Biden’s favorable/unfavorable ratio is 57 to 32 percent.

Another finding may be surprising to some. Only seven percent say they perceive their neighbors and friends as not comfortable voting for an African American. Yet, nearly a quarter (24 pecent) say their neighbors and friends are not comfortable voting for a presidential candidate who is 72 years old.

In both these questions, respondents were told to put aside their personal feelings about the issue and render their judgment. They weren’t asked directly the questions for fear that they would give the “politically correct answer,” said Mr. Gotoff.

The Oct. 9 results indicate that people perceive the McCain camp is running a more negative campaign than Obama by a ratio of 2.5 to one. Fifty-three percent say Sen. McCain is running a more negative campaign to 20 percent who say this of Sen. Obama.

The margin of error for the sample size of 800 in Friday’s numbers is plus or minus 3.5 percent.

The GWU website says that the Battleground Polls began in 1991 and “have gained widespread media recognition as reliable bellwethers of national opinion and voters’ intentions.”