Brent crude rose 19 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $81.94 a barrel at 1006 GMT, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 20 cents, or 0.3 percent, at $79.10 a barrel.
Oil prices gained 5 percent last week after protests in Kazakhstan disrupted train lines and hit production at the country’s top oilfield Tengiz, while pipeline maintenance in Libya pushed production down to 729,000 barrels per day from a high of 1.3 million bpd last year.
Kazakhstan’s largest oil venture Tengizchevroil (TCO) is gradually increasing production to reach normal rates at the Tengiz field after protests limited output there in recent days, operator Chevron said on Sunday.
“The tailwind lent to oil prices by supply concerns should therefore abate, which suggests that prices will fall this week,” Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch said.
Oil is also drawing support from rising global demand and lower-than-expected supply additions from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and allies, or OPEC+.
OPEC’s output in December rose by 70,000 bpd from the previous month, versus the 253,000 bpd increase allowed under the OPEC+ supply deal which restored output slashed in 2020 when demand collapsed under COVID-19 lockdowns.
A surge in COVID-19 infections, however, put pressure on oil prices. Despite early studies showing a lower risk of severe disease or hospitalization from Omicron compared to the previously dominant Delta variant, healthcare networks across Spain, Britain, Italy, and elsewhere have found themselves in increasingly desperate circumstances.
Meanwhile, if Russia invades Ukraine, it could disrupt Russian crude exports to Europe and push oil prices higher, RBC Capital analysts said in a note.
Tens of thousands of Russian troops are gathered within reach of the border with Ukraine in preparation for what Washington and Kyiv say could be an invasion, eight years after Russia seized the Crimea peninsula from Ukraine. Russia denies invasion plans and has said it is responding to what it calls aggressive and provocative behavior from the NATO military alliance and Ukraine, which aspires to join NATO.
By Bozorgmehr Sharafedin