The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has predicted a milder winter across much of the United States.
The NOAA prediction has contradicted the Farmer’s Almanac prediction, which said the winter will be harsh this season.
In the U.S. Winter Outlook for December through February, higher-than-normal temperatures are expected across the western and northern U.S., Alaska, and Hawaii. They also said the El Nino will have a 70 percent to 75 percent chance of happening.
“We expect El Nino to be in place in late fall to early winter,” said Mike Halpert, who is the deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Although a weak El Nino is expected, it may still influence the winter season by bringing wetter conditions across the southern United States, and warmer, drier conditions to parts of the North.”
In the winter, the NOAA said, typical El Nino conditions include wetter-than-average precipitation in the southern U.S. and drier conditions in parts of the northern U.S.
The NOAA said that the Southeast, Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic all have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures.
No part of the U.S. is favored to have below-average temperatures.
It also said that wetter-than-average conditions are likely across the southern part of the U.S., and up into the Mid-Atlantic. Northern Florida and southern Georgia have the greatest odds for above-average precipitation during the winter, the NOAA said.
Drought conditions are most likely across the Southwest, Southern California, the central Great Basin, central Rockies, Northern Plains, and parts of the interior Pacific Northwest.
But drought conditions are anticipated to improve in areas in Arizona and New Mexico, southern sections of Utah and Colorado, as well as the coastal Pacific Northwest and Central Plains, the agency said.
The NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center posts its three-month outlook once a month. The next update will be posted on Nov. 15.
Contradicts Farmer’s Almanac
The Farmer’s Almanac said that for its winter outlook, the temperatures are going to be cold with “plenty of snow.”
The winter, it said, will be “colder-than-normal… from the Continental Divide east through the Appalachians.” It added: “So just how cold will it be? The real teeth-chattering arrives mid-February especially in the following zones: Northeast/New England, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Midwest, and Southeast (yes, even the Southeast will be in the chill zone!).”
During that time, an Arctic cold front will move across the U.S. and produce bitter winds and a drop in the temperature over much of the U.S.
It is also predicting lots of snow “for the Great Lakes states, Midwest, and central and northern New England, with the majority of it falling in January and February.”
“Contrary to the stories storming the web, our time-tested, long-range formula is pointing toward a very long, cold, and snow-filled winter. We stand by our forecast and formula, which accurately predicted the many storms last winter, as well as this summer’s steamy, hot conditions,” editor Peter Geiger wrote.