The state of New York could lose up to two congressional seats in the next round of apportionment because of a decline in population, according to a new report by Election Data Services, a political consulting firm.
The Dec. 22 report (pdf), which the firm says is based on new Census Bureau population estimates, “shows a subtle but significant change in the upcoming apportionment process.”
“Under the back-dated April 2020 data, New York would only see a single seat lose, instead keeping their 26th seat (seat #435) by only 20,337 people,” the report states. “But the July population estimates shows New York losing two congressional districts, that second seat by only 24,428 people.”
More than 126,000 people moved out of New York state between July 2019 and July 2020, according to preliminary Census Bureau data. That’s the biggest population drop of any state this year.
The apportionment process involves dividing the 435 memberships, or seats, in the U.S. House of Representatives among the 50 states. The Census Bureau is currently processing the data from this year’s census.
According to the census website, the bureau will send redistricting counts to the states around April 1, 2021. This information is then used to “redraw legislative districts based on population changes.”
Currently, New York has 27 seats in the House of Representatives. In 2012, New York state lost two seats to reapportionment.
It has been widely reported that people have recently started to leave New York for other states. Protracted lockdown measures, increasing crime, and high taxes are a few of the reasons for the state’s declining population.
Ten congressional districts could shift between 17 states, according to the report. Other states, such as Arizona, Colorado, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon could all gain a single seat.
Florida, according to the report, could possibly gain a second seat, while Texas might even gain a third seat.
New York Mayor Bill de Blasio offered rare praise for President Donald Trump on Dec. 22 for his role in getting a COVID-19 vaccine out quickly.
“In terms of getting the vaccine, yes, I do think the president and his administration contributed substantially to getting a vaccine in this kind of time frame,” de Blasio told Fox News. “That’s a really good thing.”
Li Hai contributed to this report.