New Poll Shows Trump Leading by a Confident Margin in California

Also leading in Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Connecticut.
By Steven Klett
Steven Klett
Steven Klett
April 21, 2016 Updated: April 21, 2016

Donald Trump’s path to solidifying delegates before the Republican Convention in July depends a lot on winning in California on June 7.

In the latest poll numbers by Capitol Weekly/Sextant, Trump is leading in the state with 41 percent, compared to Ted Cruz’s 23 percent John Kasich’s 21 percent. 

California divides most of its 172 delegates by congressional district—the winner of each of the state’s 53 congressional districts receives three delegates, and the winner of the entire state gets 13 delegates.

According to the poll’s results, Trump is leading in every district—from San Diego to Northern California. 

Cruz performs strongest in the Central Valley area, though he still trails by 7 percent: 35 percent to 28 percent. Trump leads in the liberal Bay Area, but it’s the relatively moderate Kasich who beats Cruz for second place, trailing Trump 39 percent to 25 percent.

The Texas Senator, when speaking in Irvine, California, invoked Reagan, the former Governor of California, and called the state the “birthplace of the Reagan revolution.”

“And let me tell you, there’s a new revolution brewing.”

The poll shows that Trump leads most among older voters 55 and over with 43 percent of the vote, and is weaker among younger voters.

After winning handily in New York on April 19, the Republican frontrunner has a substantial delegate lead total—845 delegates to Cruz’s 559 delegates.

In order for Trump to secure the nomination, he needs to have 1,237 delegates going into the first ballot of the Republican convention in July. 

In other states, Trump also has sizable leads. In Pennsylvania, he’s in the lead by similar margins—with 43 percent according to RealClearPolitics poll averages. In Connecticut, he has 49 percent of the polling average, and in Maryland 41 percent.

All three states go to the polls on April 26.  

The survey included 1165 registered Republicans and had a unique method of polling. Instead of calling up voters, the poll collected responses via the Internet from registered Republicans for whom email addresses are included in the California voter file.

The poll also surveyed 466 Republicans who have registered so far in 2016. Trump does even better with that group, winning 53 percent of their support, to 21 percent for Cruz and 15 percent for Kasich.