Experts Weigh In on House Speaker Standoff

Experts Weigh In on House Speaker Standoff
House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) passes reporters as he returns to the House Chamber for an 8th round of voting for a new Speaker on the third day of the 118th Congress at the U.S. Capitol in Washington on Jan, 5, 2023. (Reuters/Jonathan Ernst)
Michael Washburn
1/5/2023
Updated:
1/6/2023
0:00
News Analysis

The failure to attain a majority sufficient to elect Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Ca.) as speaker of the new GOP-led House of Representatives, even on the eleventh attempt, and on the heels of three days of negotiations, reflects a failure of leadership within the party riven by the same pro-Trump and anti-Trump schism that led to disappointing midterm results last November, experts on both sides of the aisle have told The Epoch Times.

McCarthy continues to be a deeply unpopular figure among some members of the party despite making at least two concessions, namely agreeing to an expanded presence of members of the conservative Freedom Caucus on the House Rules Committee; and agreeing to place on the table a change to the rules governing the protocol for voting on the removal of a House speaker, to grant even a sole member of the House the power to call for a vote on the ousting of the speaker.

Even after 11 votes—three on Tuesday, three on Wednesday, and five on Thursday—the 218-vote threshold needed for election to the role of House speaker, which some had predicted would be a shoo-in for McCarthy, continues to elude the California Republican. This is now the longest speaker contest in 164 years.

McCarthy has enjoyed the backing of a vast swath of the party, as well as former President Donald Trump.

But an equally vocal segment within the party does not see McCarthy as a viable candidate for speaker, notably Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), a Trump-aligned congressman who has been a staunch opponent of the Californian’s speakership bid.

“There are only two outcomes here: Either Kevin bows out realizing there’s no path to him becoming speaker of the House ... or he essentially has to wake up, bring the House into session and put on a straightjacket with a rules package that we’ve presented to him that doesn’t allow for a lot of discretion for the speaker of the House,” Gaetz said in an interview on Fox News on Wednesday night.

“The reason that we’ve demanded that is that we do not trust Kevin McCarthy and it’s not a small body of work. The guy’s been in leadership in Washington, D.C., for 14 years and this town needs to change.”

Meanwhile, Republican supporters of McCarthy have voiced frustration at holdouts.

Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.), a McCarthy ally, said he opposes giving certain concessions to the 20 Republicans still opposing the Californian.

“One thing that I’m not on board with is the idea that you have to guarantee them X number of slots on the [Appropriations] Committee or the Rules Committee,” Gallagher told NTD, sister media outlet of The Epoch Times, on Thursday. “Because I just think that that’s such a bizarre precedent where every faction, whether it’s the moderates or the whatever caucus, is going to demand ... ‘Where are our seats?’ … And then you’ve subverted the steering committee process.”

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) casts his vote for Speaker of the House for former U.S. President Donald Trump as he stands next to Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) during a 7th round of voting for Speaker of the House on the third day of the 118th Congress at the U.S. Capitol in Washington on Jan. 5, 2023. (Reuters/Evelyn Hockstein)
Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) casts his vote for Speaker of the House for former U.S. President Donald Trump as he stands next to Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) during a 7th round of voting for Speaker of the House on the third day of the 118th Congress at the U.S. Capitol in Washington on Jan. 5, 2023. (Reuters/Evelyn Hockstein)

Feuding Factions

The infighting among Republicans, and their unwillingness to coalesce around a figure who had been expected to win election as House speaker handily, reflects the breakup of the party into an assortment of strong-willed factions and individuals more concerned with asserting their own vision for the party and building their own prestige than with advancing a viable political strategy.

That’s the view of Keith Naughton, principal of Silent Majority Strategies, a Germantown, Maryland-based political consultancy.

“I think this standoff has taken on a life of its own. The whole battle has moved beyond ideology and is more a test of wills. Because the rhetoric has been so heated and public, any substantive compromise would mean one side or both are humiliated if they climb down,” Naughton told The Epoch Times.

Those who oppose McCarthy, sometimes in strong personal terms, are in an awkward position and do not have a clear off-ramp, he said.

“The problem the ‘Never-Kevins’ have is that they have made it so personal. If McCarthy drops out in favor of one of his allies, the holdouts have to vote for the new candidate or they will be pilloried as opportunists,” Naughton observed.

Whatever happens from this point out, it is unlikely to be more than a short-term, superficial remedy for a party whose fissures run deep and whose future identity is uncertain.

“I think this ends with either some cosmetic, unenforceable concessions to get McCarthy in, or McCarthy drops out and a new candidate gets forced on the anti-McCarthy faction. This whole mess is less about ideology and public policy, and is really a case study in bad politics,” Naughton added.

David Carlucci, a former New York State senator who now works as a political consultant, sees the feud taking place on Capitol Hill as symbolic of the negative campaigning and inability to craft a unifying message that cost the Republican Party dearly in the midterm elections of November 2022, when the GOP failed to retake the Senate and gained only a thin majority in the House.

“Republicans did so poorly in the midterm elections because the American people doubted their ability to lead. The speakership debacle is an in-your-face example of lack of leadership and exposes a faction of the Republican Party that has become so used to building political capital by attacking and pointing out flaws, with a focus on destroying rather than creating,” Carlucci told The Epoch Times.

“Refusing to compromise has become a brand for many of these politicians, so that progress becomes impractical or just goes against their political brand,” he added.

The Epoch Times has reached out to McCarthy’s office for comment.

Michael Washburn is a New York-based reporter who covers U.S. and China-related topics for The Epoch Times. He has a background in legal and financial journalism, and also writes about arts and culture. Additionally, he is the host of the weekly podcast Reading the Globe. His books include “The Uprooted and Other Stories,” “When We're Grownups,” and “Stranger, Stranger.”
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