China’s top technology, e-commerce and consumer electronic firms are set to report a sharp slowdown in revenue growth for the June quarter, as a bruising trade war with the United States weighed on the Chinese economy and hurt consumer spending.
Revenues at a handful of China’s biggest tech firms are expected to grow 26 percent on average in the quarter ended June 30—the slowest in six quarters—compared with the same period a year earlier, according to consensus estimates from Refinitiv. This includes China’s e-commerce giant Alibaba Corp. and its smaller rival JD.com, internet firm Baidu Inc., and Tencent Holdings, the world’s largest gaming company.
Net income at these companies is expected to grow 9 percent, versus a galloping 50 percent increase a year earlier.
The trade war has roiled global supply chains and forced tech companies to rethink production and marketing tactics. A lackluster June quarter is expected to prompt firms to cut costs further to shore up margins.
China’s economic growth slowed to 6.2 percent in the second quarter, its weakest pace in at least 27 years.
“Given the slowing economy and tightening of credit within China, we can expect to see this reflected in … different ways,” said Taipei-based technology analyst Sam Reynolds. “For the more business-to-consumer focused companies, this will be reflected in slower consumer spending; for the more business-to-business companies (like Baidu) this will be reflected in less ad buys.”
Below are some expected milestones for these firms that are scheduled to report results in the coming weeks, based on Refinitiv data:
** JD.com, which is expected to report earnings on Aug. 13, could manage to eke out a small profit by curbing costs. But with fewer consumers buying household appliances and electronics, the online retailer is likely to post its slowest revenue growth in at least five years.
** Alibaba’s profit likely grew 27 percent, its fourth successive quarterly rise. Big promotions are expected to propel its sales 38 percent higher, but that will be the company’s slowest growth in 14 quarters.
** Tencent is expected to post profit growth of 24 percent, versus a 2 percent decline a year earlier, helped by adoption of its patriotic-themed video games and cloud services. The music-streaming unit it backs—Tencent Music—on Aug. 12 missed revenue estimates as it reported the slowest increase in a widely watched metric for growth since its debut in December.
** Alibaba and Tencent, China’s biggest listed companies, have together lost roughly $96 billion in market value since the trade war took a turn for the worse in May.
** Baidu’s profit likely fell 71 percent, its third straight quarterly decline as it invested to keep up with competition from privately held ByteDance. Revenue is expected to fall 0.8 percent, its first decline in 10 quarters.
** Smartphone maker Xiaomi Corp’s revenue growth is expected to be the slowest since its initial public offering in July last year.
** OLED display panel maker BOE Technology—among China’s big bets to counter U.S. tech—is expected to post 26 percent income growth, its second straight quarter of profit growth after three successive quarters of decline.
(Graphic: Expected quarterly performance link: https://tmsnrt.rs/2YMioUo).
(Graphic: Quarterly performance China and US tech link: https://tmsnrt.rs/2YR37BT).
By Gaurav Dogra