U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to slap tariffs on more Chinese goods on top of duties already imposed, and Beijing has responded by halting the purchase of U.S. agricultural products.
The country’s July exports are expected to have declined 2 percent from a year earlier, according to the median estimate of 29 economists in the poll, compared with a 1.3 percent decline in June.
Imports are likely to post a steeper decline in July, pointing to softer domestic demand, as Beijing’s stimulus measures have failed to put a floor under sliding economic growth.
Trump stunned financial markets last week by vowing to impose 10 percent tariffs on the remaining $300 billion of Chinese imports from Sept. 1, abruptly breaking a brief ceasefire in a trade war that has disrupted global supply chains.
On Monday, the Chinese currency breached the key 7-per-dollar level for the first time in more than a decade, in a sign Beijing might be willing to tolerate more yuan weakness, which could offset some impact from the higher U.S. tariffs.
“We believe such a boost will be quite limited, given the relatively short time frame, and is likely followed by some payback effects in and after September,” said analysts at Nomura in a note on Friday.
July imports were forecast to have contracted 8.3 percent from a year earlier, worsening from a 7.3 percent decline in the previous month, the poll showed.
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