Hours earlier, the agriculture ministry had confirmed a second outbreak of the disease in Xuancheng City in the eastern province of Anhui, which occurred on a small farm of 308 pigs, killing 83 of them.
“It looks like it’s accelerating,” said Pan Chenjun, senior analyst at Rabobank, adding that she expected farmers to start selling off pigs before they are forced to cull animals if the disease hits their own or neighboring farms.
“I think in coming days they will liquidate their herds,” she said. That would hurt prices for all farmers, even those able to keep the disease at bay.
China has now discovered eight cases of the deadly disease in five provinces: in Liaoning in the country’s northeast, in central China’s Henan, and in the eastern provinces of Anhui, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang.
China’s agriculture ministry said on Sept. 2 it will shut live hog markets in the affected provinces. It also imposed a ban on transporting pigs and pork products from the provinces, the most drastic measure taken so far, and one set to have major repercussions across the supply chain.
The prohibition will effectively prevent slaughterhouses and meat processing factories from using pigs or pork from affected regions. Stopping pigs and pork products from being transported out of those regions will also cause major disruption to farmers, traders, and slaughterhouses.
“This will be a very serious situation for large companies with several farms in the northeast,” said Pan.
Northeastern provinces do not have sufficient slaughterhouse capacity and typically transport pigs to provinces in the south.
In Henan Province, one of China’s top pig-producing regions, animal stocks have jumped because farmers there can no longer sell animals to other parts of the country, said an agent surnamed Ni who trucks pigs around the province.
“I haven’t had any business in the past two days because there are too many pigs in the market. Prices are bad and there is not much demand,” he said. Ni said he used to transport up to 700 pigs a day, but current volumes are around 700 a week.
The government also said live hogs from unaffected provinces cannot be transported through those that have reported infections.
Until now, authorities had only stopped transportation of pigs and products and shut live markets in and around infected areas.
“Costs will go up and it will take much longer to get pigs to the consumption areas,” said Ni.
The ministry said it had culled more than 38,000 hogs as of Sept. 1 as it tries to contain the outbreak.
The virus is transmitted by ticks and direct contact between animals, and can also travel via contaminated food, animal feed, and people moving from one place to another. There is no vaccine for the disease, but it is not harmful to humans.
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