Canadian Cancer Cases and Deaths Expected to Increase in 2024: Study

A radiologist uses a magnifying glass to check mammograms for breast cancer in Los Angeles, on May 6, 2010. (The Canadian Press/AP-Damian Dovarganes)

Cancer cases and deaths are expected to increase in 2024, according to a recent study from the Canadian Medical Association Journal.

“Although the overall incidence of cancer and associated mortality are declining, new cases and deaths in Canada are expected to increase in 2024, largely because of the growing and aging population,” said the May 13 study “Projected Estimates of Cancer in Canada in 2024.”

The study said in 2024 there will be an estimated 247,100 new cancer diagnoses and 88,100 cancer deaths, up from 239,100 cases and 86,700 deaths in 2023. Lung cancer is expected to be the most common cause, with 20,700 deaths, compared to colorectal cancer (9,400 deaths), pancreatic cancer (6,100), breast cancer (5,500), and prostate cancer (5,000).

It is also expected that the age-standardized mortality rate will be 37 percent higher among males compared to females.

Cancer continues to be the leading cause of death in Canada, with the Centre for Population Health Data at Statistics Canada estimating in 2023 that around 25 percent of all deaths in Canada in 2022 came from the disease.

The study said while the number of cancer cases in 2024 will likely rise compared with previous years, overall cancer incidence and mortality continue to decline in Canada. The study attributed the declines to efforts across the country’s “cancer control spectrum,” as well as improvements in prevention, screening, and treatment.

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According to the study, there have also been noticeable improvements in lung and colorectal cancer incidence and mortality, thanks in part to reduced rates of tobacco smoking. However, reductions in lung cancer incidence have not been as pronounced among women.

The Canadian Cancer Society recently announced that all provinces and territories should lower the starting age for breast cancer screening from 50 to 40. It said there is mounting evidence that lowering the age would detect more instances of breast cancer earlier, noting that one in eight Canadian women is expected to be diagnosed with the ailment.

Rise in Cancer a ‘Daunting Prospect’

In a Canadian Medical Association Journal editorial released the same day as the study, Dr. Keerat Grewal wrote that Canada’s expected rise in cancer incidence and mortality is a “daunting prospect” given that many people with symptoms of the disease already face “circuitous and frustrating paths to obtain a diagnosis and start treatment.”

“Receiving a diagnosis of cancer in an emergency department is becoming routine in Canada, which highlights the failure of health care systems to support adequate primary care–initiated pathways for diagnosis of suspected cancer,” Dr. Grewal said.

Many emergency physicians believe a growing number of Ontario cancer patients are being diagnosed during urgent hospital admission, she said, something more common during the pandemic recovery period and typically affecting older Canadians without access to primary care or from minority backgrounds.

“Although access to testing may be expedited, an emergency department is an unfortunate place to be told ‘you may have cancer,’” Dr. Grewal wrote.