The recent election results in the Solomon Islands carry mixed messages for Australia, the United States, and other nations in the Indo-Pacific region.
The most obvious positive is that pro-Beijing Prime Minister Manesseh Sogavare is no leader of the Pacific nation.
A polarising figure, both domestically and abroad, the former prime minister announced that he would not seek a further term.
His party, OUR, secured just 15 of the 50 seats in the national parliament. It also gained four more seats as part of a coalition with two micro-parties.
However, the new leader of OUR, Jeremiah Manele secured 31 votes—in a separate vote—to defeat the main opposition party’s leader, Matthew Wale, for the prime ministership of the Solomons.
A former foreign minister, Mr. Manele, doesn’t have the abrasiveness of his predecessor.
However, the change of prime minister has not altered the fundamental challenges that the Solomon Islands government poses for Western allies; including the United States and Australia, especially its embrace of the Chinese communist regime.
Mr. Manele was the foreign minister when the Pacific nation dropped its recognition of Taiwan in favour of the People’s Republic of China. Although more diplomatic than his predecessor, the new prime minister is committed to the same policies.
Prior to the election, OUR announced its five priorities for government. These included preserving social cohesion and preventing ethnic tensions, a response to the riots in 2000.
Other priorities include enhancing legal and governing systems to ensure public safety; and promoting economic growth.
But the pro-Beijing policies remain, including the utilisation of the Belt and Road Initiative. Specifically, the OUR party committed to a “look north policy.”
During the campaign, Mr. Sogavare praised the Chinese communist political system, and declared his government’s decision to switch diplomatic ties from Taiwan to have “put Solomon Islands on the map.”
The purportedly religious man also claimed democracy led to moral decline and same-sex marriage.
Has Sogavare Really Left the Building?
Mr. Sogavare was re-elected in his East Choiseul constituency.It is fanciful to think that having spent more than a quarter of a century in Parliament, the 69-year-old Mr. Sogavare will not continue to exercise considerable influence in the Islands polity.
In announcing that he would stand down as prime minister after the election, Mr. Sogavare said that his government had “come under pressure from the United States and Western allies” and “had been accused of many things.”
His statements didn’t sound like those of a person about to leave the political fray.
Meanwhile, the secret 2022 security agreement with Beijing remains in place, and allows the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to station troops, weapons, and naval ships on the Island. It also allows for Solomons police to be trained by their CCP counterparts.
There is also speculation that the agreement includes access to ports and other infrastructure by the People’s Liberation Army Navy.
American and Australian Blood Shed for this Region
While Australia and its allies have reason to be relieved at Mr. Sogovare’s demise as prime minister, they cannot be complacent.Australians and Americans of earlier generations recall that the Battle of Guadalcanal was a critical juncture in World War II.
Now known as Honiara, the capital of the Solomon Islands is on Australia’s doorstep and in the centre of key shipping lanes.
Eighty years later, the geo-strategic factors remain significant as the CCP seeks to exercise its influence in the Indo-Pacific.
Both Australia and the US have increased their engagement in the region, but ongoing attention and vigilance are required to ensure security and stability in the region.
