Ontario has had the slowest average income growth in Canada for the past 20 years, according to a new study.
Ontario’s median income grew only 7.2 percent over the two-decade period, well behind Alberta’s 17.4 percent. On the other end of the spectrum, Newfoundland posted total growth of 52.2 percent.
Prince Edward Island’s average income growth came in at 41.3 percent followed by Saskatchewan at 36.2 percent, New Brunswick at 33.7 percent, B.C. at 30.3 percent, Quebec at 25.2 percent, Nova Scotia at 22.9 percent, and Manitoba at 19.2 percent.
“On a number of important economic metrics, Ontario is lagging the rest of the country, which ultimately means Ontario workers are falling behind, along with opportunities for them,” Fraser Institute senior fellow Ben Eisen said in a May 9 press release.
“The weak growth in median employment income during this period is one of the clearest indicators of how Ontario’s economic performance has adversely affected the lives and economic prospects of Ontarians, and the extent to which the province has lost ground relative to the rest of the country.”
Ontario’s GDP per-person growth was the second-lowest in Canada. The province ranked ninth out of 10 provinces in inflation-adjusted GDP growth per person with its annual growth coming in at 0.7 percent—0.2 percentage points per year behind the 0.9 percent Canadian average.
Ontario’s business investment per worker during the 20-year period was also low. The rest of the country averaged 65 percent more business investment per worker than Ontario did.
“We find that taken together, these indicators paint a picture of minimal economic progress for Ontario and lost ground relative to much of the country, such that the period from 2002–2022 can be considered two “lost decades” of economic progress and growth,” the study authors wrote.
As Canada’s most populated province, Ontario was once one of the most prosperous until the 2008–09 recession. The downturn in the economy, combined with a manufacturing sector that had begun to decline in the mid-2000s, took a toll on the province—one it has never fully recovered from, according to the study.
Ontario’s provincial debt has also grown quickly, increasing the burden on current and coming generations of taxpayers “while creating risks for the province’s future prosperity,” the authors wrote.
“It remains to be seen if and when Ontario can return to sustained, robust growth and retake its historical place as a leader and driver of the national economy.”
