Around 40 percent of jobs worldwide will be affected by artificial intelligence (AI) as the technology will shape the nature of future work, according to a study by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The study, released on Jan. 14, found that AI will impact high-skilled jobs. In developed economies, exposure to AI is greater, as 60 percent of these professions will be affected by AI, primarily “due to the prevalence of cognitive-task-oriented jobs.” These economies will face more risks, but benefit more from AI than less-developed and emerging economies.
The report noted that about half of the impacted jobs could experience increased productivity via AI integration. However, for the other half, AI applications might take over crucial tasks currently handled by humans, potentially reducing labor demand, causing lower wages, and limiting hiring. In extreme scenarios, some jobs may even disappear.
In emerging markets, 40 percent of jobs will be exposed to AI, while in developing countries, the number is 26 percent. This indicates that less developed economies would face fewer risks from AI. But they are also less prepared to take AI’s advantages as they “don’t have the infrastructure or skilled workforces,” worsening the digital divide and income disparity between countries.
The report also warned that AI could deepen “income and wealth inequality within countries.” The IMF cited research, finding that “AI can help less experienced workers enhance their productivity more quickly. Younger workers may find it easier to exploit opportunities, while older workers could struggle to adapt.”
The impact on workers’ income will depend primarily on the level at which AI can enhance high-income workers. “If AI significantly complements higher-income workers, it may lead to a disproportionate increase in their labor income,” the report noted. “Moreover, gains in productivity from firms that adopt AI will likely boost capital returns, which may also favor high earners. Both of these phenomena could exacerbate inequality.”
“In most scenarios, AI will likely worsen overall inequality, a troubling trend that policymakers must proactively address to prevent the technology from further stoking social tensions,” IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva wrote in the blog post. “It is crucial for countries to establish comprehensive social safety nets and offer retraining programs for vulnerable workers. In doing so, we can make the AI transition more inclusive, protecting livelihoods and curbing inequality.”
The IMF has also developed an AI-preparedness Index for 125 countries. The index found that Denmark, Singapore, and the United States are among the top AI best-prepared countries. The report found wealthier countries are better prepared for AI integration than developing economies.
The IMF’s report suggests that advanced and emerging economies should establish regulatory frameworks to responsibly maximize AI benefits. In addition, the report advises low-income countries to increase infrastructure development and skilled labor force training to narrow the technological gap.
The report was released before the 2024 World Economic Forum, which just started on Jan. 15 in Davos, Switzerland, where AI is expected to be a hot subject. High-profile tech figures, including OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, will speak at the event.
The IMF’s study is not the only one looking into how AI will impact the world economy. A Goldman Sachs study found that generative AI can boost the world GDP by 7 percent, or $7 trillion, and enhance productivity growth by 1.5 percent over a decade. The study found that the AI wave could impact 300 million full-time jobs globally. About two-thirds of U.S. professions will be exposed to a certain degree of automation by AI.
According to PwC research, AI could add up to $15.7 trillion to the world economy in 2030, more than the current GDP of China and India combined. This estimate includes $6.6 trillion from increased productivity and $9.1 trillion from consumption-side effects.
The research also states that in 2030, China is projected to benefit most from AI with a 26 percent boost to its GDP, and North America is expected to experience a 14.5 percent GDP boost, equivalent to $10.7 trillion, representing about 70 percent of the global economic impact.
