Poll Says Freeland Preferred Candidate to Succeed Trudeau as Liberal Party Leader

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau looks on as Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland speaks in Ottawa, on Oct. 7, 2022. (The Canadian Press/Adrian Wyld)

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland is the most prominent candidate when it comes to replacing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in a potential Liberal leadership race, according to a new poll, while the majority of Canadians say they are unsure who the best potential successor is.

A recent Abacus Data survey for Toronto Star asked 1,500 respondents who they think should replace Mr. Trudeau as Liberal leader if he were to step down. The most prominent response was “don’t know,” with 54 percent of respondents saying they were unsure who the best candidate would be.

Of those who did have a preference, Ms. Freeland was the top choice. As deputy prime minister and finance minister, Ms. Freeland has the highest profile of the seven potential candidates in the survey, taking 13 percent of the vote.

Just behind her was former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney, at 11 percent. Mr. Carney, who has described a future run for the top Liberal spot as a possibility, is best known in recent years for his climate change activism and support of the carbon tax.

Other potential candidates—Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly, Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne, Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc, Housing Minister Sean Fraser, and Treasury Board President Anita Anand—all garnered between 3 percent and 5 percent of the vote as the best option for a future Liberal Party leader.

While Ms. Freeland and Mr. Carney appear to have more name recognition than the others, no one potential candidate appears to jump out as the clear public choice as a successor for Mr. Trudeau.

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“It really does show that there’s no clear front-runner. There’s no obvious choice in Canadians’ minds who would replace Trudeau,” Abacus CEO David Coletto told the Toronto Star.

Self-identified Liberal supporters were also uncertain about the best choice for the next Liberal leader. Thirty-two percent of respondents in this group said “don’t know” when asked.

Of those who did have a preference, 27 percent chose Ms. Freeland, 14 percent chose Mr. Carney, and 8 percent chose Ms. Joly. The remaining candidates each took roughly 4–5 percent of the vote, the poll found.

The online survey of 1,500 Canadian adults was performed by Abacus between April 25 and April 29, after the budget was released on April 16.

The survey results come as public polls show the tide is turning against the prime minister and his party. Another recent Abacus poll, conducted during the same period, placed the Tories as the clear front-runner if an election were to be called today.

The Pierre Poilievre-led Conservatives have a 21 percentage point lead across all demographic groups and in every region of the country except Quebec, according to that poll. Among committed voters, 44 percent would vote Conservative and 23 percent would vote Liberal.

When asked for their preferred choice as prime minister, Mr. Poilievre also led Mr. Trudeau. The Tory leader led by 20 percentage points, at 41 percent versus 21 percent, in every region of Canada, including in Quebec.

Trudeau Leadership Questions

The leadership of Mr. Trudeau, who has served as prime minister since 2015, has been the source of speculation for months as his popularity continues to wane among voters. Despite the often vocal and visible opposition to his leadership in the form of protests and bumper stickers, he has said he has no plans to step down.

“There is no doubt for me that yes, I continue, I have to keep going, and I still have a lot to offer,” Mr. Trudeau told online media La Presse on Dec. 7. “I still have a place in politics.”

The prime minister said he expects to continue his minority term, which, bolstered by the supply-and-confidence agreement with the NDP, will take him to 2025.

Several Liberal cabinet ministers were questioned by reporters in January about their support for Mr. Trudeau’s leadership and asked if they would throw their hats in the ring should he step down.

Ms. Freeland told reporters at the time that the prime minister had her “full support” as leader of the Liberal Party going into the next election.

“I am pretty sure you will find my colleagues here feel the same way,” Ms. Freeland said at a Jan. 29 press conference in Ottawa. “We have a leader.”

She was accompanied by Mr. Fraser, Mr. Champagne, Ms. Anand, and Immigration Minister Marc Miller. All four ministers were also asked to comment.

“You don’t even need to add more to that. That’s the perfect answer,” said Mr. Champagne referring to Ms. Freeland’s remarks.

Mr. Miller was asked explicitly if he would like to run for Liberal leadership.

“Not a chance,” he responded.

Mr. Fraser and Ms. Anand did not comment. Mr. LeBlanc and Ms. Joly have also had little to say about a potential leadership bid when asked by reporters.

Mr. Carney has been the most transparent about his interest but has downplayed any kind of immediate bid for the position. With Mr. Trudeau already committed to running as the Liberal Party leader in the 2025 federal election, Mr. Carney said he wouldn’t be able to make a bid for the leadership for some time.

Under the Radar?

The results of the Abacus poll suggest the public knows little about the seven potential leadership candidates, although some, like Ms. Freeland, have a higher profile than others.

Twenty-five percent of respondents said they didn’t know enough about the deputy prime minister to have an opinion on her as a potential party leader.

At the other end of the spectrum was Ms. Anand, with 46 percent of those surveyed saying they knew little about her.

Many of those polled reported having “neutral” views of the possible candidates, ranging from 20 percent for Ms. Freeland to 26 percent for Ms. Joly and Mr. LeBlanc.

Ms. Freeland also had the highest score of  “negative” views, at 34 percent, followed by Mr. Fraser at 28 percent, Ms. Joly at 23 percent, and Mr. LeBlanc at 19 percent. The scores of Mr. Carney, Mr. Champagne, and Ms. Anand ranged between 16 percent and 18 percent.

Despite having the highest negative score, Ms. Freeland also garnered the top positive score, with 21 percent of respondents seeing her in a positive light. She was followed by Ms. Joly at 19 percent, Mr. Carney at 18 percent, Mr. Champagne at 16 percent, Mr. LeBlanc at 13 percent, Ms. Anand at 12 percent, and Mr. Fraser at 10 percent.

The lack of certainty was even apparent among respondents who said they were Liberal supporters.

Seventeen percent said they didn’t know enough about Ms. Freeland to have a true impression of her, while 40 percent felt that way about Mr. Fraser.

Liberal supporters did have more positive views about Ms. Freeland overall, however. Fifty percent of respondents said they had a positive impression of her, compared to only 11 percent who said they had a negative impression and 21 percent who reported “neutral” views.

Mr. Fraser scored lowest among Liberal supporters, with only 23 percent saying they have a positive impression of him, the poll found. Nine percent said they had a negative impression, and 27 percent were neutral.