ANALYSIS: If Poilievre Becomes PM, What Changes Would He Make and How Quickly?

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre rises during the question period in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on March 18, 2024. (The Canadian Press/Sean Kilpatrick)

With Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives far ahead in the polls, the next federal election could bring a change in leadership and big policy changes. But it takes a lot of political capital to make big changes, and some deeply embedded policies may be hard to reverse.

How might a Poilievre government approach Liberal programs currently taking root, such as national child care, pharmacare, and dental care? How might it handle energy policy, including how Canada’s oil and gas industry is treated and how green energy is subsidized?

When it comes to drugs and crime, Mr. Poilievre has said he would halt government funding of “safer supply” opioids and increase penalties for some crimes. He has talked of slashing the CBC’s funding, undoing Liberal policies criticized as “censorship,” and balancing the federal budget.

The political capital for making big changes is greatest right after an election victory, says Aaron Wudrick, director of the domestic policy program at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute.

“The million-dollar question is, is he prepared to spend it all quickly?” Mr. Wudrick told The Epoch Times. “He’s going to have to make some big decisions fast and early.”

Recent examples of world leaders making big decisions right after being sworn in include U.S. President Joe Biden nixing the Keystone XL pipeline on his first day in office, and Argentina’s President Javier Milei getting rid of whole ministries shortly after taking office.

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Mr. Poilievre’s plan to eliminate the carbon tax—or to “axe the tax,” as his slogan goes—is relatively simple and would likely be his first move, says Sanjay Jeram, a political science professor at Simon Fraser University. But halting some of the other trains set in motion by the Liberal government could be more difficult.

The civil service may also present a subtle obstacle. Mr. Poilievre would select his cabinet, and we might see a shuffling of deputy ministers, but the big bureaucratic machine—the civil service—has been running under Liberal leadership since 2015. Although it’s supposed to be apolitical, some civil servants famously cheered Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in 2015 during his appearance at Global Affairs Canada offices shortly after he was sworn in.

Mr. Jeram likened it to when Donald Trump ran for president in 2016. Mr. Trump made a campaign vow to “drain the swamp”—that is, to clean up the “deep state” of federal bureaucrats, among others, who continue to influence how the country is run no matter who sits in the Oval Office.

“[Mr. Poilievre] would never say ‘draining the swamp,’” Mr. Jeram told The Epoch Times. “But he would come up with his own version of trying to limit the leeway of public service in terms of making decisions and implementing [policies].”

Diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) policies in government workplaces have politicized the civil service, says David Leis, vice-president of development and engagement with the Frontier Centre for Public Policy think tank.

DEI is part of the criteria for some government funding as well, and it’s embedded in other places too—it’s “across the board,” Mr. Leis said.

Mr. Poilievre has spoken against the “woke left” and “identity politics” and has recently taken a stronger stance on touchy social issues, including stating that he is against minors taking puberty blockers. But it remains unclear how far he would go with federal policy on such issues.

To have a sense of what Mr. Poilievre’s first priorities might be, Mr. Wudrick said, we should look at what he spends the most time talking about. Housing and government spending are high up there, he said. But housing policy takes years to come to fruition.

“You can’t build 2 million houses in a year. So, he can make changes relatively quickly, but seeing the payoff, seeing the big jumps in housing supply could take years,” he said.

Reducing Spending

If Mr. Poilievre is looking to cut costs, he may eye the new Liberal universal care plans, some of which have had bumpy rollouts and ballooned in cost. It may be difficult, however, to roll back entrenched programs that some Canadians have come to rely on.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau looks on as Chrystia Freeland speaks at a press conference at a local child-care centre in Ottawa, on March 29, 2023. (The Canadian Press/Sean Kilpatrick)

The newly proposed pharmacare plan would still be “vulnerable” around election time, Mr. Jeram said. The election is scheduled for fall of 2025.

The pharmacare plan aims to provide free contraceptives and diabetes medication. Mr. Poilievre has said he favours filling the gaps in health care rather than funding a new program, Mr. Jeram said, so Conservatives may move to cut it. Or a Poilievre government may at least halt any expansion to cover medications more broadly.

Similarly for other programs, Conservatives may halt expansion or choose not to renew funding rather than repeal altogether, Julie Simmons, a political science professor at the University of Guelph, told The Epoch Times.

The national child-care program is more entrenched than pharmacare, as it has been running for more than a year now. The feds have signed five-year agreements with all the provinces and territories.

It has had its problems—waitlists are bursting, and many child-care providers say its inflexible policies make it difficult to operate. Conservatives have criticized it for limiting parental choice. For example, it doesn’t help private, at-home daycare providers.

But Conservatives voted in favour of Bill C-35, the Canada Early Learning and Child Care Act, which will enshrine the daycare plan in law, committing to long-term funding. The bill has passed both the House of Commons and the Senate and is now awaiting royal assent.

The Conservatives may opt to make the program more flexible for parents and operators when it comes time to renew the agreements, as Conservative MP Kerry-Lynne Findlay suggested in an interview with the National Post last year.

Federally funded dental care has also already kicked in for many Canadian seniors, and the rollout is planned to continue into 2025.

Dental care was estimated in Budget 2023 to cost $13 billion over five years (ballooning from an original estimate of $6 billion). The child-care plan is estimated at more than $6 billion annually, according to the Parliamentary Budget Officer. The cost of the pharmacare plan has not yet been announced, but media reports citing sources with knowledge of the plan put it at about $1 billion annually.

The federal budget is also heavy on subsidies to back up green energy and electric vehicle (EV) mandates.

Multibillion-dollar plans have already been set in motion to establish EV battery plants and other infrastructure. Ms. Simmons says it would be difficult to pull out of those agreements, especially as they’re bilateral agreements with provinces, but Mr. Wudrick says the Conservatives could if they think it’s best long term.

“There’s a basic principle in government: You’re not allowed to bind future governments,” he said.

Energy Policy

A Conservative government may decide to take a “short-term hit” if it feels this isn’t the best long-term direction for Canada’s economy, Mr. Wudrick said. Economists, such as the University of Calgary’s Jack Mintz, have told The Epoch Times they question the wisdom of establishing an industry that may depend long-term on large government subsidies.

Mr. Wudrick compared it to Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s government repealing the Green Energy Act shortly after it took power in 2018. The act was put in place by the previous Liberal government and included subsidizing renewable energy to provide a long-term guarantee of above-market rates. Repealing the act came with some cost, but Mr. Wudrick said it would have cost more in the long run.

Mr. Poilievre has promised that a Conservative government would repeal EV mandates that aim to have all new vehicle sales be zero emissions by 2035. He has said he prefers gradual changes rather than the short timelines for zero emissions set by the Liberals.

The Energy East pipeline’s proposed route is pictured as TransCanada officials speak during a news conference in this file photo.  The project was eventually cancelled. (The Canadian Press/Jeff McIntosh)

“We need smart regulations to improve fuel efficiency, gradually, year after year, and that will save money for consumers while protecting the environment. And over time, we get to a point where we have close to zero emissions in our automobiles through various types of technology,” he told AM640’s Alex Pierson in a year-end interview last year.

He told reporters in November 2023 that he does not propose withdrawing from the Paris Agreement on climate change. He has stood on the side of oil and gas infrastructure projects.

While campaigning for the Conservative leadership, Mr. Poilievre said he would repeal “anti-energy laws,” as he called them in a talk in Regina on March 4, 2022.

One of those laws is Bill C-48, the Oil Tanker Moratorium Act, which prohibits large oil tankers from docking along B.C.’s north coast. It passed in 2019 and effectively shut down any plans for pipelines to take Alberta’s oil and gas products to the coast for shipping to international markets. The tankers were considered an environmental hazard due to risk of leaks.

Another was the Impact Assessment Act (IAA), which Alberta also fought against, saying it would limit the province’s ability to develop oil and gas infrastructure. The IAA, passed in 2019, allowed the federal government to take some power over projects based on concerns about certain social and environmental impacts. The Supreme Court found the IAA unconstitutional last year, but the government is expected to announce a new iteration of the law this spring.

The IAA is one of multiple Liberal policies recently ruled by courts as overstepping jurisdictional boundaries. Mr. Poilievre’s strong stance on letting provinces manage their own affairs makes it likely that such jurisdictional fights would evaporate under a Conservative government, Mr. Jeram said.

“When it comes to provinces like, say British Columbia, that are under an NDP government, I don’t see him picking open fights,” Mr. Jeram said.

B.C.’s drug policies may, however, be a point of contention. British Columbia is set to have an election this fall, and if NDP Premier David Eby is re-elected, his strong commitment to safer supply programs wouldn’t have any federal backing under a Poilievre government.

Drugs, Crime

Federal funding is set to expire this month for safer supply programs that provide opioids to people struggling with addiction. B.C. provides its own funding to such programs but may face pressure to provide more if federal funds dry up, which they certainly would if Mr. Poilievre has his way.

Mr. Poilievre has introduced motions to drop federal funding of safer supply programs and to withdraw Ottawa’s approval allowing B.C. to decriminalize the possession of small amounts of hard drugs. Both motions were voted down, but a Conservative government would likely revive them.

While the Liberals have sought to remove minimum penalties for some crimes, such as drug possession, Mr. Poilievre has recently promised to increase minimum penalties for extortion to crack down on gangs and organized crime. He has also spoken of increased penalties for car theft.

But he would take it easier on speech-related “crimes” the Liberals are trying to crack down on.

Toronto police vehicles are pictured on Driftwood Avenue in Toronto, on Feb. 18, 2024. (The Canadian Press/Arlyn McAdorey)

Mr. Poilievre has criticized the newly introduced Online Harms Act, which would broadly impact online content. He supports cracking down on exploitation of children and some crimes the bill aims at, but he has expressed concern about definitions of “hate speech.”

“We do not believe that the government should be banning opinions that contradict the prime minister’s radical ideology,” he said in a statement on Feb. 27.

Sweeping Changes?

Mr. Wudrick says many politicians opt for the slow and steady approach to change. It’s easier to stay popular that way, he said.

Mr. Jeram also says most Western politicians make far fewer changes than promised.

However, according to Mr. Wudrick, “Some people suggest that [Mr. Poilievre is] a guy that has strong views about certain things and is prepared to do what it takes to get there. Even if he becomes unpopular.”

And big, quick change doesn’t always make one unpopular, Mr. Wudrick said, citing the example of former Ontario Premier Mike Harris, who was re-elected with a large share of votes after serving a term on a “radical platform.”

Mr. Poilievre recently praised the late Brian Mulroney for making bold changes when he served as prime minister.

“So the lesson I take from that is that he [Mr. Mulroney] was prepared to stand alone in order to stand for what was right, and that it wasn’t easy in the short run,” Mr. Poilievre said, speaking to the Greater Vancouver Board of Trade on March 8. “In the long run, he has been vindicated.”

Noé Chartier contributed to this report.