The federal carbon tax is a “dead man walking.” The much-loathed tax has never had more public and political opposition than it does now. But don’t expect Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to ever abandon what’s become his defining policy.
There are now seven provincial premiers calling on Trudeau to pause hiking the carbon tax as planned on April 1. This increase will cause the price of gas to rise by an extra 3 cents, on top of other changes. And an increase in gas prices will cascade down to affect the price of food and other basic goods.
The seven are Doug Ford (Ontario), Danielle Smith (Alberta), Scott Moe (Saskatchewan), Blaine Higgs (New Brunswick), Tim Houston (Nova Scotia), Dennis King (Prince Edward Island), and Andrew Furey (Newfoundland and Labrador).
While six of them are leaders of conservative parties, Furey (no relation) is a Liberal premier. That’s the most damning name on the list for Trudeau, given how the Atlantic provinces have typically been strongholds for the Liberals for decades.
That’s not all though. On March 21, Trudeau survived a non-confidence vote against the increase to the carbon tax brought forward by Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. This meant that if a majority of MPs had voted against the increase, the government would have toppled and we’d have an election (which Trudeau would without a doubt lose). But because the NDP and Bloc Quebecois sided with the Liberals, the motion failed.
This is a fitting issue to have a non-confidence vote on. Trudeau is incredibly unpopular, and Poilievre is well-liked and currently on pace to become the next PM with a majority government. While it’s not uncommon for a PM’s popularity to plummet just before they lose office, the current situation is a bit different.
The next election needs to be held on or before October 20, 2025. It’ll only happen before then if either the House of Commons has a non-confidence motion and the Liberals lose or if Trudeau decides, for whatever reason, to call one sooner.
This means he could remain as PM for another year and a half. The poll numbers could also remain constant for a year and a half. Trudeau would then be tremendously unpopular, with the voters preferring him to leave immediately, yet he would remain in office pushing through equally unpopular legislation, just like the carbon tax.
Election speculation is an old pastime in federal political circles. Every few months someone with supposed insider knowledge always claims an election is about to be called. But it seems more likely that Trudeau will stick around until the last possible moment, using his time to push through his agenda. This includes the carbon tax.
There are a lot of policies and initiatives that politicians either bring in or abandon almost solely for political or pragmatic reasons. The carbon tax doesn’t seem to fall into this category. I’ve often remarked that we don’t have a prime minister who just happens to be interested in climate issues. We have a climate activist who just happens to be prime minister.
Trudeau is a true believer in these aggressive climate change policies, no matter the harms they bring to our economy. We should expect more policies like the carbon tax between now and the election, not fewer.
After all, this isn’t the first time the carbon tax has been under siege and Trudeau stuck with it. Prior to the pandemic, Alberta, Ontario, and Saskatchewan fought the federal Liberal government in court to liberate their provinces from the tax. The Liberals wouldn’t moderate and took the battle to the Supreme Court (which ruled in their favour).
Trudeau was always willing to make a political wager with the carbon tax, though. Back in 2008, Stephane Dion ran for PM against Stephen Harper on the Green Shift—which was very similar to the carbon tax we now have. He lost in part because of this policy that Harper successfully—and accurately—framed as a “tax on everything.”
We had the debate back then and the people rejected a carbon tax. Trudeau believed he could slip it in under different branding. He succeeded for a while.
The people aren’t falling for it anymore, however. They’re resoundingly against it. Just don’t expect Trudeau to help them out.
