NEW DELHI—India's government began on Wednesday the hard task of cobbling together votes to survive a no-confidence motion after the withdrawal of its communist allies in protest against a nuclear deal with the United States.
Communist parties, which provided the government with a parliamentary majority for the last four years, formally told India's president on Wednesday they had ended their support and requested a no-confidence vote in parliament.
The withdrawal has left Prime Minister Manmohan Singh needing other parties to ensure his ruling coalition survives and escapes an early election, as well as finalising the nuclear deal.
The government, led by Singh's Congress party, believes it has enough votes after securing the backing of the regional Samajwadi Party, but the vote could be close.
"The taste of the pudding is in the eating," Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee was quoted as saying in local media when asked if the government had enough lawmakers.
The timing of the vote of no confidence depends on the president, but it could be in the next two weeks, political analysts said. Some Indian newspapers said the vote could be held around July 21-22, but they did not give sources for the dates.
On Wednesday evening, President Pratibha Patil issued a statement saying she would meet Singh on Thursday "to have his views on these developments". The call for a no-confidence vote is likely to be discussed.
At stake is the four-year-old, left-of-centre government of Singh. A defeat would trigger an early election, just as the government struggles with record inflation and rising interest rates taking the shine off a booming, trillion-dollar economy.
"Altogether, we assess a 70 percent probability that the government survives the confidence vote," wrote Seema Desai, an analyst at Eurasia Group, in a report.
The government also says it will only move ahead with the nuclear civil co-operation deal—the next step is approaching the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)—after the vote.
The pact's approval would be a major success for Singh, giving India access to U.S. nuclear fuel and technology and moving the Asian giant's trade and diplomatic relations closer to the West.
But time is running out if it is to be passed by the U.S. Congress before President George W. Bush leaves office.
Singh met Bush on the sidelines of the G8 summit in Japan and discussed the nuclear deal. But they gave few other details.
"I am very pleased with the state of our relationship, which has truly acquired the characteristic of a genuine strategic partnership," Singh told reporters after meeting Bush.
No-Confidence Vote
For the vote, the ruling coalition has secured the support of the Samajwadi Party (SP), which has a history of pragmatic alliances with governments.
But it still needs several votes from other smaller parties, and must hope there is no rebellion within the ranks of the SP against the nuclear deal, which critics say gives the United States too much influence over India.
The Congress party must ensure support among scores of parties in a 545-member house representing more than 1 billion people, including dozens of ethnic groups and castes.
Markets were hit last week by fears for the government of Asia's third-biggest economy. But shares rose around 4.6 percent on Wednesday, partly since some investors hope Singh will press for reforms such as privatisation after the left's withdrawal.
But in terms of the nuclear deal, time may be too short.
The pact is potentially worth billions of dollars to U.S. and European nuclear supply companies, and would give India more energy alternatives to drive its booming economy.
India still needs to seek approval for the deal from the IAEA, then the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group, where there is doubt because India is outside the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and finally ratification by the U.S. Congress.
Critics say the deal reverses 30 years of U.S. policy opposing nuclear cooperation with India after it developed nuclear weapons in contravention of global rules.
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