Epoch Times | AFL (Aussie Rules)-Eyes on the Prize

Round 15 in the Australian Football League features several top shelf games this weekend, but to be honest, the squabble over eighth position on the ladder is mostly academic. When September comes around, fans will be talking up their chances, but it's only the top four – on form it'd be fair to say only the top three – that have a chance of premiership glory.

Only once since the final eight system was introduced in 1994 has a team come from outside the top four to win the AFL's ultimate prize.

Under an arguably faulty final's schedule, the Adelaide Crows in 1998 won their second premiership from fifth after losing in the first week of the finals.

Thankfully, that flaw has been corrected as any loser from the bottom four in the top eight is now eliminated in the first week.

Considering the fluctuating form for all but the top three this season, the chances of a team coming from fifth or lower to win the flag, while possible, are extremely remote. So that explains all the fuss over the importance of the top four.

It is generally understood that finals experience cannot be undervalued and that a team needs to reach the finals once, twice or even thrice before that group can have a genuine chance at a tilt at the title.

So that explains the fuss over the battle for eighth spot.

But, for the top four – aside from a second chance for first week losers – what is the benefit of first and second over third and fourth placings? That is a different matter.

The stakes get higher as first and second are awarded an all-important first week home state final against fourth and third and a week's rest for the victors.

Bearing this in mind and looking at the AFL's fixture for the next few weeks, one can anticipate some of the season's most important clashes as teams jockey for their top four spot. Starting with this weekend, put a big red circle on your calendar for these matches:

July 13 (Round 15) ‑ Hawthorn host Sydney at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.
July 19 (Round 16) ‑ Geelong host Western Bulldogs at Skilled Stadium in Geelong.
July 25 (Round 17) ‑ Hawthorn host Geelong at the MCG.
August 3 (Round 18) ‑ Western Bulldogs host Sydney at Manuka Oval in Canberra.

You can throw in the August 1 (Round 18) match where Collingwood host Hawthorn at the MCG as the battle for fourth between Sydney and the 'Pies will likely be at its hottest, and Hawthorn will be coming off that Geelong clash.

This weekend's Carlton–St Kilda, Collingwood–Adelaide and even Essendon–Brisbane clashes could have vied for match of the round, but in terms of the top four prizes, the Hawthorn and Sydney one will be closely scrutinised.

Questions will be answered this Sunday at the MCG starting at 1.10pm in their first meeting for the season.

Can the Swans re-group and bounce back after their first loss in seven Rounds? Can the Hawks get back on a roll?

Sydney's grip on that fourth spot slipped after Collingwood convincingly defeated them in a low scoring affair by 29 points last weekend.

Hawthorn comes into the match fresher after a week off and a Round 14 defeat of West Coast by 57 points where they bounced back from a shock loss to North Melbourne the week before.

Head-to-head since 2005, Sydney have the wood on Hawthorn, having won all five of their last encounters. But the Hawks are a much more powerful high-scoring outfit this season and are likely to blow the Swans – whose wheels look shaky now – off the G.

Matches in coming rounds to finals fanciers, Carlton and Adelaide and then that Bulldog's one could make or break the Swans.

But before all the Swans supporters jump off the wagon in their fickleness, consider that the first two-thirds of the season has been relatively easy and their current fourth-placed position may be overrated. Loyal fans would know that their draw turned out favourable; two matches against West Coast Eagles and Port Adelaide for four wins; two against St Kilda for a win and a loss; and to date, only one against ladder leaders Geelong and Western Bulldogs for a further two losses.

The Hawks need to win this one too. After having some big names return to the field in recent weeks, they need to stabilise their roster as it's another history proven trend that the most stable teams make the most formidable units in the finals. Backing up the Swan's match, they also face final's fanciers in St Kilda then those Geelong and Collingwood matches.