Talking Rugby-Tri Nations Trouble Ahead

The Wallabies defeated an under-strength France by a record 40–10 in Brisbane last Saturday July 5, but they remain a long way short of the Tri Nations pace.

While the Australians were playing the so-called "Baby Bleus", the All Blacks and the Springboks fought a Tri Nations battle of attrition in rain-swept Wellington, with the New Zealanders defeating the world champions 19–8. Wallabies' coach Robbie Deans has already said the Tri Nations "will be another level".

The Wallabies will face the Boks in their competition opener in Perth on Saturday week (July 19). In the meantime, the week before, the Blacks and the Boks will meet again this Saturday in Dunedin.

If the Wellington Test is a guide to form, the Wallabies must improve greatly or they will be dominated by the Springboks – and then by the All Blacks. However, a 40–10 international victory is significant, nonetheless. Flyhalf Matt Giteau returned to form and dominated the game. He will be crucial to the Wallabies' hopes.

Three injuries affect the Wallabies, with fullback Cameron Shepherd breaking his leg, lock James Horwill injuring his eye and centre Berrick Barnes injuring his shoulder.

The Opposition

However, the main worry will be the Blacks and the Boks, who stand astride world rugby like giants. The Springboks are the world champions – the All Blacks replaced them at the top of the International Rugby Board rankings following the Wellington win. Both sides have a complete game. As well, the aggression and physicality of the two sides will concern the Wallabies. As always, the South Africans battered the All Blacks with brutal tackling, most of it legal.

In the muddling game against the Baby Bleus, the Wallaby discipline was tested...and found wanting. The belligerent Boks are sure to have noticed that. Their flyhalf, Butch James, is a notorious hit man, who may well use old-fashioned biff to counter the skills of Giteau.

The same applies to the backrow. The Wallabies' backrowers are excellent, but the Boks backrow may be the best in the world – they are certainly the most combative. And if they are not the best, the All Blacks are. The backrow is crucial, because those are the three players most responsible for ball turnover, which is the key to counter-attack.

If the Wallabies' backrowers cannot match their Tri Nations rivals, they will struggle to win games. The Wallabies have two brilliant openside flankers in George Smith from the ACT Brumbies and Phil Waugh from the NSW Waratahs. Either could start against the Africans.

Elsom and Palu

They are supported by blindside flanker Rocky Elsom and No.8 Wycliff Palu, who has improved dramatically. Whether they can match the Blacks and the Boks is debatable – and will be a talking point throughout the competition. The All Black captain, openside flanker Richie McCaw, is the best in the world. He missed the Wellington Test through injury, but was seamlessly replaced by No.8 Rodney So'oialo, who also captained the side. The South African trio is led by the impressive blindside flanker Schalk Burger, who is both frighteningly tough and overly aggressive – which is frightening in itself.

If Wallabies' centre Barnes fails to recover from his shoulder injury, the Australian stocks will fall further. He is only beginning to form a combination with flyhalf Giteau and outside centre Stirling Mortlock. Both the Springboks and the All Blacks have world class centres – who have the ability to turn a game, both in attack and defence. The Boks have Jean de Villiers – who set up a try against the All Blacks – while the Blacks have the Hurricanes pairing of Conrad Smith and Ma'a Nonu.

For the Wallabies, Waratahs' Lachlan Turner, 21, made his debut on the wing, replacing the injured Lote Tuqiri. He will almost certainly be a long-term Wallabies player. Former league player Ryan Cross came on as a replacement for Barnes in the centres and scored two tries.

The Wallabies have a break this weekend, which may leave them underprepared for the fury of the battle-hardened Springboks. They will watch the All Blacks play the Springboks this Saturday, which will be educational and unnerving. The Dunedin Test will be played at Carisbrook – also known as the House of Pain – and will commemorate 100 years of international rugby there.