WASHINGTON—U.S. President George W. Bush hopes to enlist Arab support for reining in Iran when he visits the Middle East this week, a goal underscored by a new confrontation between U.S. and Iranian ships.
The White House on Monday sternly warned Iran against "provocative" actions after five Iranian boats made aggressive maneuvers near U.S. Navy ships in the Strait of Hormuz, the entrance to the Gulf. The incident took place as Bush prepared to leave on a trip to the region.
"I think this is a very vivid reminder that Iran is still a very dangerous country and that they have a tremendous capacity to cause mischief," said Bruce Riedel, a senior fellow and Middle East expert at the Brookings Institution think tank.
"This a punctuation mark for what the president's message will be about Iran during this trip," he said.
Bush on Tuesday leaves for Israel and the Palestinian West Bank where he will try to advance Middle East peace negotiations.
He will also visit Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt.
A main focus of his talks in those countries will be Iran, which has had hostile relations with Washington for nearly 30 years, exacerbated recently by Iranian involvement in Iraq and by Tehran's determination to build a nuclear program.
Riedel said the timing of the Iranian naval maneuver, which sent oil prices briefly higher, suggested an attempt by Tehran to "play hardball" with Washington ahead of Bush's visit.
Bush, in a Reuters interview last week, said one goal of his Middle East trip was to make clear to Arab allies he still considers Iran a threat, despite a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) drawn up by U.S. agencies that said Iran stopped its nuclear weapons program in 2003.
'Iran Is Still A Danger'
"I will clarify to them that the NIE means that Iran is still a danger," he said. "I will remind them that a country that can suspend a program can easily start a program." Iran insists its nuclear program is just for energy generation.
The Bush administration has been trying to allay concerns among some Arab countries that its tough policy toward Tehran had softened following the report.
Gulf Arab rulers have traditionally relied on U.S. military presence for protection and Bush will assure them that the United States plans to stay engaged in the region. The headquarters of the U.S. fifth fleet is in Bahrain, in the Gulf.
While sharing many of Washington's concerns about Iran's rising influence, some Arab allies harbor suspicions about the reliability of U.S. policy toward Tehran.
"They need constant reassurance that we actually mean what we say and that we can be trusted," said Gary Sick, an adjunct professor of Middle East politics at Columbia University.
The wariness is rooted in long memories of U.S. support for the former Shah, and the Iran-Contra affair in which U.S. officials sold weapons to Tehran while it was publicly considered the enemy.
Gulf states have also noted that U.S.-led wars in Iraq and Afghanistan removed Iran's adversaries Saddam Hussein and the Taliban, said Sick, who served in the National Security Council under several presidents including Ronald Reagan.
"From their point of view we've made Iran into this 800 pound gorilla in the region, and now we're all forced to figure out what to do about it," Sick said.
Iraq, like Iran, now has a Shi'ite-led government, while Gulf state populations are majority Sunni Arab.
Some Arab countries may view the U.S. intelligence report with some relief. "Most of the players there don't really want a confrontation with Iran," said Wayne White, former deputy director of the State Department's Middle East intelligence office.
Riedel said Bush may have difficulty getting public statements of support from Arab allies about Iran.
"Many of these countries would prefer accommodation rather than confrontation," he said, pointing as an example to Saudi Arabia's decision to invite Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to attend the Haj in the holy city of Mecca, the first time an Iranian president was officially invited to participate in the annual Muslim pilgrimage.
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