With only a few days before the April 22nd presidential election, many French voters are still undecided. A run-off on May 6th seems certain.
The top four candidates are the real contenders. The latest poll shows that Segolene Royal of the left wing Socialist Party gets 20–22 percent, François Bayrou of the centrist Union for French Democracy (UDF) gets about the same, Nicolas Sarkozy of the right wing Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) is in the lead with nearly 30 percent, and Jean-Marie Le Pen of the extreme right National Front (FN) has 15 percent.
The eight other candidates are all below 5 percent, as polls show. They belong to the green party, and different extreme-left, nationalist or traditionalist groups.
Sarkozy Sure to Be in Election
Many believe that Nicolas Sarkozy can easily get his ticket for the May 6th run-off. For months he has been leading in all the polls and vigorously dominating the campaign and debates. Other candidates' campaigns seem to be responses to his platform and strategies.
Minister of Interior from 2002 to March 2007 (and briefly Finance Minister in 2004), Sarkozy defines himself as a man of action, ready to restore the French people's national identity, national security, and the work ethic. His opponents, however, sees him as a politician thirsty for power. They are particularly critical about his views toward paedophiles and homosexuals.
Some find Sarkozy a smart ultra-pragmatist, who has made clear that he would actively work for a lift of the arms embargo that Europe has imposed on China since the bloody repression of students in June 1989.
He is also considered to be largely responsible for the widespread riots in Paris suburbs in late 2005, with his inflexible attitude and controversial statements like "I'm going to clean the suburbs with high-pressure water jets."
Anti-Sarkozy Election Strategy?
Strong reactions against Sarkozy have generated the slogan "Elect anyone but Sarkozy". Discussions among many French voters are focused not on whom they would like to see become the next president, but on who could possibly beat Sarkozy in the run-off.
Many are reminded of Chirac's re-election in 2002, which was based not on widespread trust and support, but on the fact that his opponent, far-rightist Jean-Marie Le Pen, was considered by the French public a neo-fascist.
Polls, however, are pessimistic that anyone can beat Sarkozy, who is an eloquent speaker in front of the grassroots in France. After more than 100 polls, not a single chance has been given to Royal, who is expected to get at best a mere 48 percent in the run-off.
Royal's Election Odds Lowered by Inexperience?
Royal, who enjoyed significant popularity in 2005, has had a hard time in the past months convincing voters that she would be competent enough to become the first female president of France.
Her platform focuses on raising low wages and retirement pensions, offering better assistance to the weak, and recruiting new teachers for schools. But she lacks credibility for international affairs, as evidenced by her trip to Palestine where she did not react to Hezbollah's statement that Israel was to be destroyed, or to China where she praised the efficiency of the legal system.
Could Bayrou Take Election From Sarkozy?
Bayrou, until two months ago, did not go beyond 10 percent in the polls. But he is now a serious competitor of Royal's. Bayrou has been the quiet man in the campaign and has tuned to those who are trying to avoid a political stand-off between the left and right in the parliament. Bayrou says he would like to build a government of national union based on the German model.
Although such vision is said to be unrealistic by Bayrou's opponents, Bayrou has been able to maintain a high level of trust from supporters. He is the only candidate that polls say would have a chance of beating Sarkozy.
On international issues, he expresses a strong opposition to Iran becoming a new nuclear power. He also has said that, if he's elected, France will boycott the Beijing 2008 Olympics in protest against the crimes of the Chinese Communist Party.
Jean-Marie Le Pen, competing with several attractive candidates who will gain votes, is unlikely to reach the run-off as he did in 2002. Moreover, Nicolas Sarkozy is doing his very best to attract Le Pen voters to himself by stressing issues like immigration control and national identity.
But the pressing issues facing the top four candidates are clear: the stagnation of the domestic economy, immigration control, and declining influence in the international realm. French voters expect to see better security, higher employment rates and—something not visible in the past elections—the hope Frenchmen can be proud of their country.
On Monday we will know which two visions of society will compete for gaining power in France.
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