News that the Shanghai Party Secretary Chen Liangyu was removed from office has sent a shock wave through the Beijing political circles. This is the first Politburo member to be sacked in the past twelve years, since the former Beijing Party Secretary, Chen Xitong. The dismissal of Chen Liangyu indicates that the power struggle between Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin at the 17th Communist Party Congress has ended one year in advance. It also signifies the end of Jiang Zemin's era and the beginning of Hu Jintao's era.
Recently, rumors that Chen Liangyu's position was in danger spread. On August 25, the district governor of Baoshan District of Shanghai, Qin Yu, a secretary who had followed Chen for a long time was suddenly fired and investigated for alleged "serious violation of regulations." Back then, the outside world thought that the fire of anti-corruption had already burned to the side of Chen Liangyu. At that time, Chen was already trapped and lacked power to protect the high-level officials around him.
The allegation against Qin Yu was the misuse of 3.2 billion yuan (US$ 4 million) of the Shanghai pension fund for illegal loans. On September 24, the official Xinhua Agency also accused Chen of "having seriously violated laws." The allegations were that he was misusing the pension fund from Shanghai Labor and Social Security Bureau to seek profits for illegal businesses, protect people working around him who severely violated laws and rules, and utilize his power to make illicit profits for his family members.
Nevertheless, Chen is a member of the Politburo, belonging to the elite group of national party and country leaders. He is one of the 23 most powerful Politburo members. Removing Chen was a difficult task not only because the procedure would encounter many barriers, but more importantly, Jiang Zemin is Chen's political patron, and Chen is protecting Shanghai—the power base for Jiang. Whether Chen stays or leaves was not only associated with his personal honor or grace, it was also related to the political future of Jiang Zemin and Jiang's "Shanghai Gang."
For this reason, in the last half a year, Jiang Zemin and the rest members of "Shanghai Gang" suddenly became very active. This April, Jiang Zemin first attended the 110-year Anniversary of the Founding of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, his old school. Then he climbed Taishan Mountain to watch the sunrise during the May First Golden week. Afterwards, the books Event Records of Jiang Zemin's Visiting Aboard and Literacy Selections of Jiang Zemin were published.
Besides, another key member of the "Shanghai Gang," Huang Ju, was said to suffer from pancreas cancer. Huang became absent from public starting January 16, but in June he suddenly showed up again, presenting and giving a speech at the opening ceremony for the conference on uniting Chinese Academy of Sciences and Chinese Academy of Engineering. Apparently, Jiang Zemin and Huang Ju make appearances often to stage a political show. Their intention is to prevent Hu Jintao from developing the anti-corruption movement in Shanghai. They even took action to protect Chen Liangyu.
As a matter of fact, on the night before Chen's dismissal, he, with other high officials in Shanghai, still happily presented at the Shanghai International Field and Track Gold Competition, watching Liu Xiang winning a gold medal. In other words, even the night before, Chen still did not sense Hu Jintao's plan. But only one day later, the Politburo meeting announced the political death of Chen Liangyu, showing that the incident occurred suddenly. Hu Jintao should have made a surprise attack at the Politburo's "Shanghai Gang" and Chen would not even have time to respond.
This action by the Politburo indicated that compromises can no longer be made between Hu and Jiang. The political negotiation already cannot stay at a stalemate. Hu is forced to take actions to sack Chen, indicating that the two sides have almost started an open game. Why can Hu, who is characterized as calm and steady, risk breaking up with Jiang and being so heavy-handed?
On one side, Hu should have already amassed enough evidence, proving Chen's criminal record. In the past few months, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection used the "Shanghai Pension Fund Case" as a notch, continuously breaking the defensive line of the "Shanghai Gang." Starting from Zhu Junyi, the head of Shanghai Labor and Social Security Bureau, to Qin Yu, and gradually to point the gun at Chen.
On the other side, Hu needs to catch the opportunity before the Sixth Meeting of the National Congress of CCP next month, so as to set a tune for the corruption problem in Shanghai. After the exposure of the Shanghai corruption case, the main tune of the Sixth meeting of National Congress of CCP can become anti-corruption. The "Shanghai Gang" will also become the center of attention. By that time Hu can use the support from the meeting and rely on anti-corruption as a weapon to further press down his opponents and squeeze the political space of local powers. He can enjoy more freedom to arrange personnel for the 17th Communist Party congress.
Conventionally, by the end of this year, the personnel for the 17th Communist Party Congress should already be laid out, and part of them will be raised as successors and secretaries. Politburo members will also be arranged prior to the end of this year. But if Chen's dismissal cannot be resolved, Hu can't make related arrangements. The time is tight, once he misses the opportunity of the sixth meeting, there could be more risks. This is why Hu was forced to make a surprise attack.
After this battle, Hu has more cards to fight with the "Shanghai Gang." But to stabilize the political situation, the anti-corruption movement in Shanghai should not be elevated too much. In the short term, it won't affect Huang Ju and Jiang Zemin. From now on, the "Shanghai Gang" will lose most of its power and won't be able to afford the long battle with Hu. The "Beijing Gang" headed by Li Peng, after Chen Xitong's case, couldn't fight with Jiang any more, which left Jiang pre-grabbing his needs at the 15th Communist Party Congress. The Chen Liangyu's case today can very likely leave full power to Hu at the 17th Communist Party congress. Therefore it can be said that the power struggle before 17th Communist Party congress has already ended ahead of time.
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