John Connolly's new-look Wallabies take on the All Blacks in Christchurch on Saturday in what will be the toughest game so far this year.
An away win will give the Wallabies a huge head start in the Tri-Nations, as they rarely lose at home.
The Wallabies are the most settled of the three sides, including the Springboks. Under Connolly, they have progressed from woeful last year to wonderful, winning two tests against England and one against Ireland, who also lost two Tests to the All Blacks.
This year under coach Graham Henry the All Blacks split into two squads, with one playing the Irish and the other playing Argentina. It is debatable whether coach Henry can defy basic mathematics and make two go into one.
If he can't, the in-form Wallabies will win at Jade Stadium.
Under Connolly, the Wallabies are playing with greater freedom, focussing less on structure and more on the ad-hoc, decision-making ability of his players, particularly the backs. As well, the forwards have assumed a pack mentality, which hasn't been seen for some time.
This is a dramatic change – and it is a change that has added vitality and flair to Wallaby play. The only thing we haven't seen so far this season is Plan B, which is what will be needed if the All Blacks stifle the free-flowing Australian play.
There has to be a Plan B. And coach Connolly knows this. But, as neither the Irish nor the English troubled the Wallabies, it hasn't been used.
So during game one of the Tri-Nations in the Wallabies may be pushed into trying an untested game plan, which is risky. Meanwhile the two-squads-into-one All Blacks must find combinations in the cauldron of an intense Test match against Australia, which is even more risky.
Whatever happens, sparks will fly. Both the Wallabies and the All Blacks will try to score points from the outset, which flies in the face of traditional, defence-oriented Test rugby.
In South Africa, on the other hand, the Springboks are in a state of shock after losing to France in their last game. Bernard Laporte's team ended a 13-game unbeaten run at home, plunging the nation into mourning.
There were immediate calls for coach Jake White's head, metaphorically and literally. He was summonsed to a meeting with SA Rugby President Regan Hoskins and Chairman Mpumelelo Tshume.
He survived. But his chances of long-term survival are now precarious.
Traditionally, when under pressure Springbok coaches find cold comfort in structure. But a structured, defensive Springboks will be no match for either the newly expansive Wallabies or the expansive All Blacks.
This corollary is brought into even sharper focus when one remembers that the Springboks played without flair or daring in the loss to France. And the focus is further sharpened when one remembers that the Springboks players come from the largely unsuccessful South African Super 14 sides, which all play an overly structured game.
But the Africans, like the Aussies and the Kiwis, hate to lose. And they love being the underdog that proves the world wrong.
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