MEXICO CITY - A fiery leftist promising a war on poverty and a Harvard-educated conservative both claimed victory in Mexico's deadlocked presidential election on Sunday, raising fears they could plunge the U.S. ally into chaos.
While the top election official said the vote was way too close to call, left-wing 1candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador insisted his party's exit polls showed he won by 500,000 votes.
"Smile. We've already won," he told cheering supporters.
"We'll be watching closely to make sure our victory is respected ... They have to respect our triumph," said Lopez Obrador, often compared by critics to Venezuela's firebrand President Hugo Chavez.
His conservative rival, Felipe Calderon of the ruling National Action Party, immediately shot back by saying independent exit polls showed him ahead and he had "no doubt" he won the race.
Mexico only won full democracy at its last presidential election exactly six years ago. A long battle over Sunday's results could wreck hard-won stability in a country key to U.S. interests on border security, immigration and drug smuggling.
Outgoing President Vicente Fox appealed for calm but some Mexicans feared a deep political crisis was brewing.
Real estate agent Victor Perera, 31, said he suspected Lopez Obrador was setting up a confrontation.
"Now if he loses, he can say the rich guys stole it from us. It could lead to chaos," Perera said at a restaurant in an upscale Mexico City neighborhood.
Luis Carlos Ugalde, the country's top election official, said it was impossible to separate the leading candidates and there would be no result until at least Wednesday.
Exit polls also said it was a neck and neck race between Calderon and Lopez Obrador.
Rival Celebrations, Nervous Markets
Supporters of both candidates held street celebrations just miles away from each other on a rainy night in Mexico City.
A fight similar to the one that erupted after the U.S. presidential election in 2000 would spook Mexico's financial markets, which are already nervous about Lopez Obrador's economic policies. Mexico's peso lost 1.5 percent in after-hours trade late on Sunday night.
Roberto Madrazo of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, which ruled Mexico for 71 years before it was toppled at the last presidential election in 2000 trailed in third place, the exit polls said.
His party did not claim victory and said the vote should be left for the Federal Electoral Institute to call when it had full results. "No to the war of polls," PRI chairman Mariano Palacios said.
Lopez Obrador, 52, won support with promises to end two decades of free-market reforms and pull millions out of poverty with welfare benefits and new jobs in infrastructure projects.
"Lopez Obrador is the only one who can bring a new Mexican revolution where the poor are the ones who win," said Amalia Rodriguez, a 19-year-old student in Mexico City.
The leftist had been the red-hot favorite but Calderon, a former energy minister, closed the gap by painting his rival as a danger to Mexico's economic stability and linking him to Venezuela's anti-U.S. Chavez.
It was a strategy that worked with many voters.
"Lopez Obrador is not a danger to Mexico; he's the enemy of Mexico," said Carolina Ocampo, a 34-year-old sunglasses saleswoman as after voting in Mexico City.
Calderon, 43, a stiff lawyer and career politician, has promised to create millions of jobs with pro-business reforms, more foreign investment and a boom in construction and housebuilding.
Fox took office after his historic victory in 2000 pledging fast and far-reaching reforms. Hopes ran high but he failed to deliver on his promises of rapid economic growth and millions of new jobs, and opposition parties in Congress blocked his economic reform program.
He was barred under Mexico's constitution from seeking reelection.
An exit poll showed Calderon's PAN party winning 35 percent of the vote for elections in the lower house of Congress, four points ahead of Lopez Obrador's party. The next president, whoever he may be, will likely face a hostile Congress.
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