The ongoing military operation to uproot and destroy Hizbollah as a military force is more than an operation against a terrorist group like Hamas in Gaza. Hizbollah, a disciplined, well-trained fighting force with sophisticated weaponry, is backed directly by Syria and Iran.
This holds the danger of eventually deteriorating into a regional escalation, although at the moment neither Syria nor Iran seems interested in this option. Furthermore, it should be recalled that Syria and Iran have recently signed a defense treaty.
For its part, Israel has thus far made great efforts not to open another front with Damascus. Israel's aims include the creation of a security zone that excludes Hizbollah fighters. The target, however, appears to be difficult and costly to achieve. In Lebanon, Hizbollah is much more than a military and political entity. It is an organization with a very strong social network, that is popular throughout that country, and an ideological party that is represented in the Lebanese parliament and government.
The ongoing attacks by the Israeli Air Force tend to increase Hizbollah's standing with broad segments of the Lebanese population. Hence, Israel's pressure on the Lebanese government to disarm Hizbollah may well be in vain. We doubt that the Lebanese Army in its currently weakened state could serve as a factor helping Israel to attain its goals. Therefore, Israel might be forced to exert a higher level of military action to break the back of the Hizbollah militia. Hassan Nasrallah, the head of Hizbollah, reportedly has on hand medium-range Zilzal missiles, produced by Iran, that are capable of striking the center of Israel.
Thus far, Nasrallah has not used them; he appears to be waiting for permission from his patron, Tehran. If the chain of violence continues to escalate, Israel might consider striking Iranian interests in the region. Iran views Hizbollah as an extended arm of its government, enforcing Iran's policy in Lebanon. Hence, it will not allow the influence of the terrorist organization to easily slip away. Israel must recall that the only way to defeat an insurgency is to isolate it from outside sources of assistance. Israel seems to be attempting to cut off Hizbollah from Syria and Iran by isolating Lebanon from the rest of the world. However, Syria appears to be undeterred from continuing to deliver wartime supplies to Hizbollah (following de facto a similarly adopted policy vis-à-vis the Sunni insurgents in Iraq).
Because Israel seems determined to carry out its operations against Hizbollah until it fully neutralizes the militia, there are many risks. Moreover, a targeted killing of Nasrallah would not be likely to resolve the problem. On the int'l scene, Hizbollah is facing isolation from large group of countries beyond the U.S. and Europe. Arab countries led by Saudi Arabia, but also including Egypt and Jordan, have expressed their condemnation of the terrorist organization. It has been referred to as a cancer on the Lebanese body. Other countries have a similar negative opinion of Hizbollah and have not provided it with the needed political support. The U.S. is providing Israel with an umbrella to continue its operational goals in Lebanon, which include crushing Hizbollah. Washington is sending its GBU-28 bunker-busting bombs to Israel for use against the terrorist organization
The power behind the throne appears to be Imad Mughniyeh, the elusive terrorist mastermind, who has one foot in Hizbullah, reporting to Hassan Nasrallah directly, and another in Iran in the architectures of the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS). Mughniyeh has until now been strictly reserved for special occasions -- like the Buenos Aires bombing in 1992 to avenge the Israeli assassination of the previous Hizbullah leader Sheikh Abbas al-Musawi. His primary mission over the last decade has been to forge qualitative 'military' guidance for Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad operatives inside Gaza and the West Bank. Nevertheless, over a long period of time, Mughniyeh has helped Nasrallah, lending a hand in preparing the current offensive.
The timing of the offensive is not a coincidence: Iran had demanded that the terrorist organization divert attention from its current nuclear crisis with the enlightened world. Hizbollah is supported financially and politically by Tehran, which has provided it with an enormous supply of weapons and ammunition. Syria is lending a hand in providing logistical support to Hizbollah, thereby permitting military goods to flow through its territory. Based on past experience, Nasrallah did not consider that Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert would respond so strongly. It appears that the prime motive for Olmert has been to build up the deterrence that Israel had lost over the last few years. In the past, kidnappings were not responded to so aggressively as the ones recently committed by the Palestinians and by Hizbollah.
Now, behind the scenes, Nasrallah is calling for negotiations and for a prisoner exchange. The German intelligence service, which brokered an exchange deal in 2004, is already working behind the scenes. The issue is, however, very complicated. Israel at the moment does not seem to be ready to part with any Hizbollah prisoners, such as Samir Al Quntar. Sources in Tel Aviv have reported that Israel may try to abduct a senior Hizbollah officer in order to increase its chances of reaching an accord.
Besides the Iranian interest, Nasrallah hopes to establish himself as the leader of the Palestinians. He envied the attention that Hamas and its leaders attained in the Arab world, especially from the common public, by kidnapping the Israeli soldier. Nasrallah wanted a share of TV prime time and this apparently was one motivation behind him driving his militia to attack Israel, kill eight soldiers and take two prisoners captive.
Israel still has a large network of intelligence capabilities in South Lebanon, Beirut and in Hizbollah, a network that has operated since the withdrawal of Israeli troops from South Lebanon six years ago. Information is being provided to Israel on such artifacts and activities as weapons and ammunition supplied by Iran via the sea and by Syria; training camps; command and communication centers; bunkers; and offices. Up to this point, Israel has rejected diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis. Neither the US nor the major Arab countries appears to be interested in helping Lebanon. Hence, the fighting in Lebanon may go on for a while, and with it the risk of regional powers such as Syria and Iran being drawn into the conflict. The latter eventuality could contain dangerous repercussions on a global scale.
Unless Hizbollah decides that it has achieved sufficient political progress by demonstrating Israel's vulnerability, it is unlikely to agree to a ceasefire. Even if it does, the IDF would be unwillingly to exercise restraint – the memories of its previous defeat in the 1980s are a heavy, embittering fact in the minds of senior military officers. That is, perhaps, another reason why the current crisis is so dangerous and could escalate across the region.
Yohanan Ben Jacob is a political and defense analyst
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