The world productivity increased last year according to a variety of economic indicators. The gross world product (GWP)—the sum of all finished goods and services—reached 59.6 trillion. Important components of the economy like steel production were up as was aluminum production. More vehicles—45.6 million—were produced than ever before. Meat production was also up.
These facts and similar trends are discussed in Worldwatch Institute's, Vital Signs 2006-2007 , released July 12, and available in a book format. Eight broad areas ranging from agricultural trends, energy and climate, transportation, social trends, environment and the economy are broken down into 44 topics such as meat consumption, infant mortality, mercury pollution, obesity, and nanotechnology, to name a few. Only 125 pages without the notes, this book summarizes each topic for the year 2005 in only two pages.
The record production and consumption masks the other news in Vital Signs that is alarming. For the economic gains there was a high cost in natural resources, most of which are not renewable. Behind the prosperity and unprecedented consumption lies a very troubling fact that the majority of the major ecosystems—like fresh water and clean energy—are being pushed beyond their sustainable limits.
"Business as usual is harming the Earth's ecosystems and the people who depend on them," said Erik Assadourian, Vital Signs 2006-2007 project director. "If everyone consumed at the average level of high-income countries, the planet could sustainably support only 1.8 billion people, not today's population of 6.4 billion."
In 2005, average atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration increased 0.6% over the high set in 2004, representing the largest annual increase ever recorded. This increase is important because carbon dioxide is the main greenhouse gas that is causing global warming. The average global temperature reached 58.3 Fahrenheit (14.6 Celsius), which makes 2005 the warmest year ever recorded. Five of the last eight years have been the hottest on record.
Christopher Flavin, president of Worldwatch, believes the accelerating rate of increase of carbon dioxide in 2005 means that ecological systems are falling behind their ability to absorb the gas and so more is being released into the atmosphere. "Global warming may be fueling more global warming," he writes.
The hotter weather warms the water which produces hurricanes. Three of the 10 strongest hurricanes ever recorded occurred in 2005. According to Flavin, Gulf of Mexico temperatures were at record high levels in the summer of 2005. This factor made Hurricane Katrina, a low–level Category 1 hurricane into the strongest Atlantic storm ever recorded.
Not only the high temperatures affected Hurricane Katrina but the decline of the coral reef buffer made the coastline more vulnerable. Vital Signs estimates that 20% of the world's coral reefs have been destroyed and another 50% are threatened. Some 205 of the mangrove forests were destroyed, which also acts as a natural buffer for coastlines against weather related disasters.
Dependence on Fossil Fuels Not Sustainable
At a teleconference on July 12, Worldwatch president, Christopher Flavin put the broad range of trends briefly discussed in Vital Signs in a larger perspective. The key trends in the economy currently depend on fossil fuels, which over time are not sustainable. Nearly 80% of the world's energy comes from oil, coal, or gas, where disruptions from the flow can cause havoc as it did when Russia cutoff the Ukraine in December 2005.
"Fossil fuels are also the main force behind the increasing urgent problems of climate change," notes Vital Signs .
World oil use increased by 1.3% in 2005, much slower than the overall economy. The reserve margin, the spare production capacity, is at near-record lows, says Vital Signs . The price is up to over $70 a barrel, tripling 2002 prices. The days of the $20 a barrel for oil in the 1990s are long past. Evidently, the world demand is posed to overtake the supply, and so Flavin concludes that we have to look at the supply side, not only the demand. The "easy-to-get oil" is harder to get now.
To meet the rising demand, coal production is increasing—6.3% in 2004 (2005 is not available). Flavin spoke disparaging of coal as being more ecologically damaging than even oil. Yet, coal usage is growing faster than oil, largely due to China which now uses more coal than the United States, India, and Russia combined.
The good news in Vital Signs is that in the year 2005 there has been a dramatic growth in renewable energy technologies and also energy efficiencies technologies. The positive side of the high oil price is the incentive it provides for finding alternative energy sources. The best example of growth, said Flavin, are the biofuels, which have become a "boom industry," attracting venture capitalists and the like, said Flavin.
Production of fuel ethanol jumped 19 percent in 2005. Ethanol is produced mainly from sugarcane and corn, and accounts for more than 90% of the world's total biofuels production. Brazil is number one in biofuels production, but the U.S., based on this year's increase, should soon surpass Brazil and become the world's largest ethanol producer. However, while the growth rates are encouraging, the overall contribution of biofuels to the global liquid fuels market is only about 1%.
Global wind power leaped 24% in 2005. "Wind energy generation has more than tripled since 2000, making it the world's second fastest growing energy source after solar power," according to Vital Signs . The U.S. installed last year more wind power capacity than any other country, putting the U.S. in third place in its wind capacity behind Germany and Spain. India is in fourth place and "China is coming up quickly," said Flavin. Presently, the wind turbines in the U.S. meet the electricity needs of an estimated 2.3 million households. General Electric is a major player in wind energy.
In 2005, solar energy increased 45%. The global production of photovoltaic (PV) cells generate electricity from sunlight. Production has increased on an average of 33% a year since 2000, "making solar power the fastest growing energy source," said Flavin. Germany dominated the global market in 2005, while Japan remains the leading PV producer. "The U.S. and Spain are moving up quickly," said Flavin. Solar collectors now provide hot water to about 40 million households worldwide.
Overall, the energy supplied by wind and solar is less than 1% said Flavin.
Flavin said that although these developments in alternative fuel sources are likely to provoke far-reaching changes in world energy markets, the transition will have to move quickly "to prevent the kind of ecological and economic crisis that may be precipitated by continuing dependence on fossil fuels."
The Worldwatch Institute is an independent research organization based in Washington, D.C. Publishing its first paper in 1975, Worldwatch Institute takes on environmental and social issues from a global and interdisciplinary perspective.
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