GRANADA, Nicaragua—Former Marxist guerrilla Daniel Ortega's attempt to return to power in Nicaragua has sent shivers up the spines of American residents who fear their quiet lives in a tropical paradise is under threat.
The left-wing Sandinista leader is leading opinion polls for Sunday's presidential election, and U.S. realtors selling villas and retirement homes in and around the colonial city of Granada foresee a slump in business if he wins.
A Cold War foe of Washington, Ortega's new friendship with Venezuela's anti-American President Hugo Chavez has many scared he could upset U.S. relations again if elected.
"We're just waiting for the storm," said property developer Terry Rogan, 50, who is halting building work on a luxury villa overlooking a glassy lake in the crater of a former volcano because of a lack of buyers.
"I've just laid off my workers because there's nothing going on. I've got four houses for sale, and a lot riding on this. But if Ortega wins, who's going to come here and get a warm fuzzy feeling about investing?" he said.
Some 6,000 Americans live in Nicaragua, many of them wealthy retirees who have settled in recent years, attracted by the climate, lush scenery and cheaper real estate than in other retiree destinations like Costa Rica and Mexico. Many have spent their life savings to buy property in Nicaragua.
Ortega says he has mellowed since the Sandinistas seized property from the rich in a 1979 revolution and then fought U.S.-backed Contra rebels in a decade-long civil war.
In opposition during 16 years of conservative governments, Ortega says he wants to end "savage capitalism" but is not an enemy of the markets and foreign investment. He has made no threats against the U.S. residents.
Yet many Americans are unnerved at the sight of the mustachioed face they recognize from 1980s news clips of Nicaragua's civil war smiling down from campaign posters.
Close to Winning
"I'm reluctant to spend any more money on this until after the election because if Ortega wins there's a good chance he'll confiscate property," said 73-year-old Richard Simpkins, explaining why his lakeside house is only half-finished.
Worries about Ortega have been stoked by U.S. officials who warn that U.S. aid and investment will drop if he wins.
"Next week, this place could belong to Ortega and I'll have to move to Costa Rica," said Simpkins, a retired Green Beret special forces member.
Many of the Americans in Granada are ex-soldiers who are naturally not well disposed toward Ortega. Some helped train the Contras in army camps in neighboring Honduras.
"Ortega hasn't changed. His speech is the same," said American Peter Cote, 42.
Real estate agents say buyers are holding back until after the election. Ortega needs 40 percent of the vote, or 35 percent of the vote and a 5-point lead, to win in Sunday's first round. Most opinion polls show him close to that.
"Everyone says if Ortega wins prices will go down," said Colorado-born Carol Moser, 46, who is struggling to sell her guest house on the shores of the Laguna de Apoyo lake.
Most Nicaraguans could not earn enough in a lifetime to buy the $200,000 villas Americans snap up here.
Eight out of 10 Nicaraguans live on $2 a day or less.
In Granada, however, locals say Americans have created hundreds of jobs for builders and bar staff, and fear an Ortega victory could nip the good times in the bud.
"They are good bosses. They are considerate and they pay well," said Nicaraguan bartender Katherine Castellon in a bar popular with retirees. "I am praying that Daniel won't win."
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