Lebanon observed a sombre independence day this week, still shaken by the assassination of yet another political leader—Christian cabinet minister Pierre Gemayel.
With its mixture of Christians, Sunni Muslims and Shi'a Muslims, Lebanon is a microcosm of the Arab world in all its diversity. As such, the small nation serves as an arena for competition between various Arab countries and some Western states to play out.
The fragile sectarian balance in Lebanon – a country still recovering from a long and violent civil war that ended in 1990 – was dealt another blow when Pierre Gemayel was assassinated on Tuesday. Gemayel, a Maronite Christian, was serving as Minister of Industry in the government of Prime Minister Fouad Sinioura, a Sunni Muslim.
Gemayel, the son of former Lebanese president Amin Gemayel, was one of Lebanon's young and promising leaders. He was a member in the "March 14 forces" which has repeatedly voiced opposition to any Syrian involvement in Lebanon either directly or through proxies like Hezbollah.
The background to his killing lies in the United Nations' (U.N.) decision to establish an international tribunal to investigate another political assassination – the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister, Rafik al-Hariri in February 2005.
Hezbollah's reaction to the U.N.'s decision
On November 10, the U.N. recommended to the Lebanese government the establishment of an international tribunal to try those involved in planning Hariri's assassination.
An interim U.N. report published earlier this year raised suspicions that senior Syrian politicians close to President Bashar al-Assad, were involved in planning the murder. The U.N. suggestion to establish a tribunal has therefore made the Syrians understandably nervous.
In response to the U.N. recommendation, the following day Amal and Hizbullah - the main pro-Syria Shiite parties in Lebanon - announced their withdrawal from Siniora's Sunni-led government.
The Lebanese Constitution, based on a careful formula to balance sectarian tensions, requires that the government include Shi'ite representatives. So, following the two parties' announcement, Shi'ite leaders have been calling for elections so a new government can form. At the same time, some leaders have implicitly threatened a Shi'ite takeover of the country.
"We can cause a revolution in Lebanon and take it over," said one senior Hizbullah representative. "But we don't want to do that."
Hizbullah's head Hassan Nassrallah told thousands of supporters that the Shi'ite ministers' resignations would lead to the fall of Siniora's government and creation of a "cleaner government." What Hezbollah and Syria are apparently hoping is that new elections might tilt the balance of power in the government more in their favour, enabling them to prevent the establishment of a tribunal.
Pierre Gemayel's Murder as a Warning Sign
As the U.N. Security Council was preparing for another round of talks on creating a tribunal, Syria and Hezbollah felt the ground being pulled out from under them despite their efforts to stop the process.
Hariri's murder in February 2005 has been followed by a serious of other assassinations of Lebanese politicians, journalists and spiritual leaders known for their opposition to Syria. What sets Gemayel's apart was that he was killed by a gunman rather than a bomb under his car or on the side of the road.
Immediately after the killing, a group called the "Fighters for the Unity of Al-Sham [Greater Syria] and its Liberty," claimed responsibility.
"Allah granted us success today as well, in the assassination of the agent Pierre Gemayel, one of those who unceasingly spouted their venom against Syria and against the Resistance [i.e. Hizbullah], shamelessly and without any trepidation," the group said in a release to the Lebanese media, according to the Middle East Media Research Institute. "We crossed out this agent [Pierre Gemayel] from the list of our targets, and sooner or later we will pay the rest of the agents their due..."
Reactions to Gemayel's Murder
The assassination has shocked many Lebanese, as well as Western governments. Sa'd al-Hariri, son of the former Prime Minister, told CNN he believed the Syrians were behind the assassination because of the close timing with the Security Council's discussion of the tribunal.
"[The Syrians] want to murder every free man and to renew the series of murders they promised," he said.
France has also hinted that Syria is behind the murder and British Prime Minister Tony Blair said that the assassination demonstrated the urgent need for a comprehensive policy strategy for the Middle East, one that would support those in favour of democracy and peaceful resolution of conflicts.
Dangers Beside Hope
Gemayel's assassination illustrates that Lebanon is exposed to centrifugal forces that are threatening to break the country into its sectarian parts, some of which have been fighting for decades. Beside the danger that the country's hard-won stability will crumble is a chance for unification. This is what happened following al-Hariri's assassination, when thousands demonstrated peacefully against Syria, prompting the withdrawal of Syria's troops after more than twenty five years in Lebanon.
The assassination was a shock to a fragile system, but there is still a chance that with international support for the democratic forces in the country, Lebanon will successfully emerge from this crisis to a normal political routine.
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