Something very important has occurred recently but it has not yet received much attention. This is President Bush’s cancellation of President Hu Jintao’s visit to the White House. China’s President Hu Jintao is faced with a number of tough domestic and foreign issues. Although his ambitions are great, diplomacy has never been one of his strong points.
As a result, Hu’s staff have spent over half a year in preparation for this visit, in order to make up a fall in his popularity at home, as well as to ease growing discontent in the US by the Hu-Wen regime’s veiled threats of nuclear war [note 1]. The cancellation has put a spanner in the works for Hu.
The superficial reasons for the White House’s cancellation of the visit seem reasonable enough. Faced with Hurricane Katrina and the flooding in New Orleans, many dead and injured and many more refugees, it is perfectly justifiable for a leader to put on hold things such as vacations and official visits in order to focus on handling internal crisis. There was nothing for Hu to complain about. However, inside the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) the complaints were everywhere. Hu’s opponents in the CCP could see the up-side of events. In the US, opposition to Hu might please the White House and the Department of Defense, but the threat to Hu would not please the US Department of State.
The future of the China-US relationship is now very difficult to predict. There are at least five possibilities.
The first possibility is that there would be few changes in the four parties [note 2] and the relationship between China and the U.S. would deteriorate. The Chinese government might decide to embarrass Bush when he visits China at the end of the year, thus further damaging the relationship. This tit-for-tat trend might continue for the next few years.
The second possibility is that the U.S. State Department would hold sway and the U.S. would take remedial measures to show due respect to Hu. Domestically, Hu’s opponents would remain unsatisfied and they could in fact stop Hu from paying respect to President Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. Again the relationship would suffer.
The third possibility is that Hu’s opponents could weaken, and the U.S. Department of Defense would take the advantage of the situation. The Chinese government would warmly welcome President Bush, but Bush would not return the favour to Hu. It would eventually result in the resurgence of opposition to Hu and a continued deterioration in the trans-Pacific relationship.
The fourth possibility is that Hu’s opponents, together with enthusiastic nationalists in China, would gain the upper hand and Hu would not be in a position to welcome President Bush in a friendly way. In this situation the U.S Department of Defense would force the abandonment of the visit and again, the relationship deteriorates.
The fifth and last possibility is that Hu maintains his strength and warmly welcomes President Bush. The U.S. Department of State would encourage remedial measures in dealing with China. The relationship between China and the U.S. would remain stable and might even improve. Hu’s quiet acceptance of the cold treatment by the U.S. could ease the tension in the U.S. towards China. On the other hand, it could stimulate nationalist sentiments in China, which would assist the Hu–Wen regime to start wars and thus damage the current stability in the Asia Pacific region.
I think we might see the fifth possibility play out. However, it is difficult to predict what President Bush and Condoleezza Rice would do. The future of the Asia Pacific region is still not clear. We can only wait and see.
1. Hu-Wen regime is the current regime of the Chinese Communist Party. It is composed of China’s President Hu Jintao and China’s Premier Wen Jiabao. 2. The four parties include the Hun-Wen regime, the anti-Hu’s group within the CCP, the U.S. Department of State and the U.S. Department of Defense
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