If the French referendum was a comfortable win for those against adopting the new EU constitution, in the Netherlands there was not even a battle, with the No camp romping home by a whopping 26 per cent.
The cat is now well and truly amongst the pigeons, with Tony Blair and Jack Straw no doubt sporting grins, at least in private, well worthy of a pair of Cheshire cats. The promised British referendum was always likely to prove an embarrassment for the Government and the PM and Foreign Secretary will be quite happy to declare the constitution a lame duck and consign the referendum to the rubbish bin.
Tony Blair has already asked France and the Netherlands how the constitution can possibly be ratified by their countries prior to the UK referendum. Mr Balkenende of the Netherlands has already said he will not do so following his country’s No vote, and legally all 25 nations must ratify the treaty for it to come into force. Moreover, Denmark is almost certain to vote No in its referendum; Ireland may well follow suit and there are no guarantees about Poland and the Czech Republic, either.
In a series of interesting developments in the European capitals, the Germans have expressed a desire to ditch the Euro and return to the Mark in a new opinion poll, and Italian Welfare Minister Roberto Maroni suggested that his country should hold a referendum on abandoning the euro.
Meanwhile, there has been an attempt by German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder to convene a meeting of the original six founder members of the EU in order to promote ratification of the new constitution and also freeze Britain’s controversial budget rebate.
Berlin stands to gain the most from the new constitution as it would for the first time link decision-making power to population. However, both the Dutch and Italian prime ministers refused to play ball, so the attempt to cement an “inner circle” within the European community seems to have stalled for the time being.
Nonetheless, it is expected that when all 25 European leaders meet in Brussels on June 16 Mr. Schroder and Jacques Chirac will both try to deflect attention from domestic difficulties by targeting Tony Blair as the main obstacle to European progress.
A new long-term EU budget to run from 2007-2013 is to be decided upon and Britain is isolated over its current rebate worth up to 5 billion euros per annum. Attempts to freeze or reduce the rebate will be hard to resist if Britain finds herself in a minority of one and that will only provide more ammunition for the vocal army of Euroskeptics back home.