BOSTON—Amidst new calls from critics for a timetable on troop pullout from Iraq, President George W. Bush introduced the "National Strategy for Victory in Iraq"—an unclassified report by the National Security Council (NSC)—in a major speech on Nov. 30 at the U.S. Naval Academy in Annapolis, MD.
The White House scheduled three more speeches on the main pillars of the U.S. strategy in Iraq, to be held before the Iraqi elections on Dec. 15.
The NSC report on Iraq declined to attach any specific timetable to the U.S. operations in Iraq. It emphasized that the U.S. strategy there should depend on the "conditions on the ground" and the progress made on the political, economic, and security fronts.
However, the report also indicated that the U.S. will adjust its policies and troop levels accordingly to condition changes in the country.
President Bush recently increased the number of troops in Iraq to 160,000 from 137,000 in anticipation of the December elections. However, the NSC report expects the coalition troops to increasingly play a supporting role to the Iraqi forces as security in Iraq improves and as the Iraqi forces start to take a more prominent role in maintaining regional security.
Coalition troops will focus more on counterterrorism operations, and gradually reduce the number of bases and move out of the cities, the report said.
Political concerns loom large
On the political front, the report seemed to take a divide and conquer approach to building political consensus and defeating opposition. It identified three types of enemies opposing the Iraqi government: the Sunni rejectionists, Saddamists and terrorists linked to or inspired by the Al-Qaeda terrorist organization.
The report is optimistic that many Sunni rejectionists—the largest of the three groups—could be won over by the merits of electing an inclusive federal government that protects their minority rights.
In the first Iraqi election in January 2005, many Sunnis had boycotted the elections and won few seats in the assembly. However, the stakes are much higher in the December elections for a permanent government, so many more Sunnis are expected to turn out.
The report expects to win over few Saddamists but seeks to neutralize them, leaving the small but lethal group of terrorists to be targeted for removal by counterterrorism operations.
Approach to security issues
On the security front, the U.S. strategy focuses primarily on building up and training Iraqi security forces until they can achieve self-sufficiency.
The coalition helped set up a number of military schools, including an Iraqi military academy, a non-commissioned officer academy, a military police school, a bomb disposal school, and an Iraqi Joint Staff College founded by the NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization).
Although the number of Iraqi recruits continues to grow, it is clear that Iraqi forces still have room for improvement before achieving operational independence.
Currently, over 120 Iraqi army and police battalions have participated in security and counterterrorism operations with the coalition forces, the report said. However, only one such Iraqi battalion has attained complete independence from the coalition battalions.
Iraqi government challenges
The Iraqi government also faces the challenge of meeting increasing demand for electricity and defending against insurgent attacks on oil and electricity nodes.
The data collected by the U.S. State Department on electricity in Iraq shows that demand has consistently outpaced supply over the past two years, sometimes by as much as 50%. The NSC report said that the Iraqi government will have to balance the need to cut down on massive food and fuel subsidies with the political resistance to such reforms.
A day after President Bush announced his strategy for victory in Iraq, a deadly bomb attack by Iraqi insurgents left ten U.S. marines dead and eleven wounded, a sign that the insurgents have not yet given up the fight.
In spite of these challenges, the NSC report said that a free and strong Iraq is vital to regional stability and U.S. security. The United States will claim victory only when the Iraqi security forces are self-sufficient and when the terrorists can no longer use Iraq as a safe haven or launch pad for future attacks, the report said.
The Iraqi votes and participation rate in the Dec. 15 elections will present a midterm report card on how well the U.S. strategy is working.
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