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Volcanoes Slowed Warming? Study Says Eruptions Slowed Global Warming

Have volcanoes slowed global warming? That’s what a new study says.

The study, led by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, found that volcanic eruptions in the early part of the 21st century cooled the planet.

The cooling partly offset the warming produced by greenhouse gases.

Despite greenhouse gases and the total heat content of the ocean increasing, global mean temperatures at the surface of the planet and the toposphere (the lowest portion of Earth’s atmosphere) have not warmed much since 1998. This has been referred to as a “slow-down” or “hiatus.”

Published in Nature Geoscience, the new study says that the eruptions injected dioxide gas into the atmosphere. If the eruptions were large enough to add the dioxide to the stratosphere (the atmospheric layer above the toposphere), then the gas forms tiny droplets of sulfuric acid. These reflect a portion of the incoming sunlight back into space, cooling the Earth’s surface and lower atmosphere.

“In the last decade, the amount of volcanic aerosol in the stratosphere has increased, so more sunlight is being reflected back into space,” said Lawrence Livermore climate scientist Benjamin Santer, who serves as lead author of the study, in a statement. “This has created a natural cooling of the planet and has partly offset the increase in surface and atmospheric temperatures due to human influence.”

From 200 to 2012, greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, as from the start of the Industrial Revolution, have increased. This has the opposite effect of eruptions, warming the troposphere and cooling the stratosphere. The researchers say that most climate models haven’t accurately accounted for the effect of the eruptions. 

“The recent slow-down in observed surface and tropospheric warming is a fascinating detective story,” Santer said. “There is not a single culprit, as some scientists have claimed. Multiple factors are implicated. One is the temporary cooling effect of internal climate noise. Other factors are the external cooling influences of 21st century volcanic activity, an unusually low and long minimum in the last solar cycle, and an uptick in Chinese emissions of sulfur dioxide.”

“The real scientific challenge is to obtain hard quantitative estimates of the contributions of each of these factors to the slow-down,” he added.

According to the laboratory, the researchers performed two different statistical tests to determine whether recent volcanic eruptions have cooling effects that can be distinguished from the intrinsic variability of the climate. The team found evidence for significant correlations between volcanic aerosol observations and satellite-based estimates of lower tropospheric temperatures as well as the sunlight reflected back to space by the aerosol particles.

“This is the most comprehensive observational evaluation of the role of volcanic activity on climate in the early part of the 21st century,” said co-author Susan Solomon, the Ellen Swallow Richards professor of atmospheric chemistry and climate science at MIT. “We assess the contributions of volcanoes on temperatures in the troposphere — the lowest layer of the atmosphere — and find they’ve certainly played some role in keeping Earth cooler.”


  • rg9rts

    An apparent natural atomic winter

  • Karl W. Braun

    If volcanic sulfur dioxide emissions are indeed having a role in bringing about a halt to global warming despite a continuing increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, as Santer et al. hypothesize in their study, then there should be some evidence of volcanic activity reducing the amount of solar transmission during the period 1998 till present. A record of solar transmission does happen to exist from the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii, and it shows that aside from the eruptions of El Chichon in 1983 and Mt. Pinatubo in 1992, there has been very little indication of decreased solar transmission of any sort, including the period of the hiatus. The data therefore does not support their hypothesis, and leaves open the possibility of climate change being the result predominantly of natural variation.

    • Jesse4

      What’s “natural variation”?

      • Karl W. Braun

        Causes independent of people’s activities.

  • takawalk

    Back when it was just called Global Warming many predictions did not come to pass on the timeline that was set forth. Speaking in terms of global human activity, it is apparent that human kind has done little to offset any influence we have on what is now usually called climate change.
    The earth’s climate has changed many times, our effort to understand those changes is still in it’s infancy. Urgent action by all the world’s human governments might be necessary to avert climate change that would not happen aside from human influence. However this is not going to happen, and if the original predictions and theory prove to be true, nature may have postponed the event but human activity hasn’t changed. If the science is on the right track, we have passed the point of no return.
    But the thought occurs to me that if ” Human Kind” and it’s governments had made many drastic changes in a effort to curtail our influence on “Global Warming” a couple of decades ago, the scientific community and others would now be proclaiming that the efforts made averted the disaster and are responsible for the “stall” this article speaks of.