Nate Silver, the statistician in charge of website Fivethirtyeight.com, issued a warning to Hillary Clinton’s campaign and her supporters that her path to capturing 270 electoral votes needed to capture the presidency looks to be slimmer than President Barack Obama’s at the same time in 2012.
He said that while Clinton is a “2-to-1 favorite,” Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is nudging her out in swing states like Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina. “The electoral college math is actually less solid for Clinton than it was for Obama four years ago, where four years ago we had Obama ahead 320-some electoral votes. Clinton has about 270,” Silver told ABC News.
“So she’s one state away from potentially losing the electoral college. You’d rather be in her shoes than Donald Trump’s, but it’s not a terribly safe position,” he said.
Silver also slammed polls that show Clinton up by as many as 5 points.
Some people are saying Clinton’s up 5-6 nationally. That’s just not a good representation of what the data says. But, she has a lead.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 6, 2016
“Some people are saying Clinton’s up 5-6 nationally. That’s just not a good representation of what the data says,” Silver tweeted. “But, she has a lead.”
He said the most recent national polls show her up by 2.3 points, which is fairly consistent with the RealClearPolitics average that shows Clinton up by 1.8 points.
“It’s wrong to show Clinton with a 6-point lead (as per HuffPo) when **almost no national poll shows that**. Doesn’t reflect the data,” he wrote.
The FiveThirtyEight model gives Clinton a 65.5 percent chance of winning, while Trump gets 34.5 percent.