DIT Predicts the Spread Rate for the Nine Commentaries and CCP Resignations
DIT Predicts the Spread Rate for the Nine Commentaries and CCP Resignations

Following its report about Beijing being the source of the most withdrawals from the Chinese Communist Party, Dynamic Internet Technology has published a “Report on Internet Circumvention Technologies and Renunciations from the Chinese Communist Party” recently. It offers two formulas. One is the distribution speed for the Nine Commentaries on the Communist Party and the other is the frequency of renunciations from the CCP. It also provides factors that influence the Nine Commentaries and renunciations of the party. Bill Xia, president of DIT said that the key lies in the degree of the Chinese people’s fear and hope/disappointment regarding the CCP.

Formulas to calculate the distribution speed for the Nine Commentaries and the frequency of renunciations from the CCP

In DIT’s 13,000 word “Report on Internet Circumvention Technologies and Renunciations from the Chinese Communist Party,” it offers two formulas to calculate the distribution speed for the “Nine Commentaries” and the frequency of renunciations.

Demographics of Renunciations from the CCP during April 2005. Beijing leads with 15.37% (DIT)
Demographics of Renunciations from the CCP during April 2005. Beijing leads with 15.37% (DIT)

Three Stages of the distribution of the Nine Commentaries and renunciations of the CCP

This graph shows the distribution model used to calculate the spread of the Nine Commentaries and the wave of renunciations from the CCP that it triggers (DIT)
This graph shows the distribution model used to calculate the spread of the Nine Commentaries and the wave of renunciations from the CCP that it triggers (DIT)

The report also divides the distribution of the Nine Commentaries and renunciations from the CCP into the following stages:

1. The promotion of the Nine Commentaries reaches the first batch of readers. Eventually, the promotional effect will reach saturation and will not reach more people. Depending on when the next stage starts, this saturation may or may not affect the speed.

2. The ripple effect will dominate when readers begin to promote the articles themselves. This will result in an increasing speed with an exponential growth pattern. Due to the technical difficulty for non-Internet users to publish their renunciation, the process will enter this stage later than the distribution process. This is the current growth pattern.

3. As more people read the Nine Commentaries, they see more people resign from the CCP and while the CCP disappoints people further in its desperation, the fear and self-censorship of people will decrease, and the hope for the CCP to improve will decrease. All those factors will make both processes grow exponentially

There are also factors such as the fact that non-Internet users represent a lower social class and the least privileged people in China who have very likely suffered more from the current regime of the CCP. The spreading of the “Nine Commentaries” from Internet users to non-Internet users will therefore cause a stronger motivation to renounce and resign from the CCP.

How Do You Influence The Future?

Cumulative page views of Nine Commentaries pages from November 19, 2004 to May 31, 2005 (DIT)
Cumulative page views of Nine Commentaries pages from November 19, 2004 to May 31, 2005 (DIT)

The CCP threatens dissidents through fear. It causes people to repress themselves and to even oversee each other. So dissidents in the past were restricted to quite a small circle. As a result, punishing active ones can efficiently create fear in the specific targets of the CCP.

However, in the electronic age, everyone can send a message such as “3 million people have withdrawn from the CCP!” via mobile phone, which can have the effect of “subverting” the CCP.

The CCP is in a dilemma. A large-scale attack the Nine Commentaries will actually act as an advertisement. The information about renunciations will help people to decrease their fears. E-mails, messages and Internet circumvention technologies have already created an environment free of fear for the CCP.

Searching for More Information about Technical Analyses

The report also provides technical graphs and charts such as the distribution model of the Nine Commentaries and the wave of renunciations; the relationship of time and number of people who read the Nine Commentaries; the relationship between time and number of CCP Membership Renunciations; Demographics of Renunciations from the CCP by geography and by provinces in China; Frequency of visits to read the Nine Commentaries; Detailed statistics of the visits to read the Nine Commentaries; and Summary of media files the Nine Commentaries have been downloaded to.

The report is available at www.dit-inc.us.

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