How Accurate are Rivals.com Rankings? (Part III) Rivals Basketball Class of 2009
How Accurate are Rivals.com Rankings? (Part III) Rivals Basketball Class of 2009

Continuing the Epochtimes’ series of looking retrospectively at past Rivals rankings, we present to you the third installation. This time, our focus shifts from football to basketball as we take a look at where the 2009 Rivals150 ended up over six years later.

Rank

Name

Pos

Ht

Wt

College

Draft/

Professional Team

#1

John Wall

G

6’4″

184

Kentucky

1st overall, 2010, Washington Wizards

#2

DeMarcus Cousins

F

6’9″

250

Kentucky

5th overall, 2010, Sacramento Kings

#3

Derrick Favors

C

6’9″

220

Georgia Tech

3rd overall, 2010, New Jersey Nets, Currently with Utah Jazz                       

#4

Avery Bradley

G

6’3″

175

Texas

19th overall, 2010, Boston Celtics

#5

John Henson

F

6’10”

200

N. Carolina

14th overall, 2012, Milwaukee Bucks

#6

Jordan Hamilton

F

6’7″

210

Texas

26th overall, 2011, Los Angeles Clippers

#7

Michael Snaer

G

6’4″

185

Florida St.

Undrafted, Last played for Ural Yekaterinbug (Russia)

#8

Xavier Henry

G

6’6″

225

Kansas

12th overall, 2010, Memphis Grizzlies, Currently with Los Angeles Lakers  

#9

Keith Gallon

C

6’8″

290

Oklahoma

47th overall, 2010, Milwaukee Bucks, Currently with Henan Shedianlaojiu (CBA) 

#10

Mouphtaou Yarou

F

6’10”

250

Villanova

Undrafted, Le Mans Sarthe Basket of the LNB Pro A    

#11

Lance Stephenson

G

6’6″

195

Cincinnati

40th overall, 2010, Indiana Pacers, Currently with Los Angeles Clippers             

#12

Kenny Boynton

G

6’2″

187

Florida

Undrafted, Last signed 1-month deal with Hapoel Gilboa Gail in November 2013.

#13

Abdul Gaddy

G

6’3″

170

Washington

Undrafted, Virtus Bologna of the Lega Basket Serie A (Italy)                   

#14

Dante Taylor

F

6’8″

230

Pittsburgh

Undrafted, Last played for Massagno (Switzerland)

#15

John Jenkins

G

6’4″

175

Vanderbilt

23rd overall, 2012, Atlanta Hawks, Currently with Dallas Mavericks             

#16

Renardo Sidney

F

6’10”

250

Mississippi St.

Undrafted, Last played with Guaros de Lara (Venezuela)

#17

Latavious Williams

F

6’7″

195

list

Undrafted, UNICS Kazan of the VTD United LeLeague (Europe)           

#18

Wally Judge

F

6’9″

218

Kansas St.

Undrafted, Hapoel T-A (Israel)

#19

Royce White

F

6’7″

210

Minnesota

16th overall, 2012, Houston Rockets, Last played for Sacramento Kings                          

#20

Ryan Kelly

F

6’9″

205

Duke

48th overall, 2013, Los Angeles Lakers

#21

Alex Oriakhi

C

6’9″

245

Connecticut

57th overall, 2013, Phoenix Suns, Currently with Pieno Žvaigždės of the Lithuanian Basketball League           

#22

Daniel Orton

C

6’10”

260

Kentucky

29th overall, 2010, Orlando Magic, Currently with Idaho Stampede (D-League)     

#23

Eric Bledsoe

G

6’1″

185

Kentucky

18th overall, 2010, Oklahoma City Thunder, Currently with Phoenix Suns

#24

Elijah Johnson

G

6’2″

183

Kansas

Undrafted, Panelefsiniakos (Greece)

#25

Milton Jennings

F

6’9″

200

Clemson

Undrafted, Last played for MZT Skopje (Macedonia)

#26

Maalik Wayns

G

6’1″

190

Villanova

Undrafted 2012, Atenienses de Manatí of the Baloncesto Superior Nacional 

#27

Solomon Hill

F

6’6″

195

Arizona

23rd overall, 2013, Indiana Pacers

#28

Tyler Honeycutt

F

6’7″

185

UCLA

35th overall, 2011, Sacramento Kings, Currently with  Khimki of the VTB United League

#29

Reginald Buckner

F

6’8″

210

Mississippi

Undrafted, Coamo (Puerto Rico)

#30

Dominic Cheek

G

6’5″

175

Villanova

Undrafted, Rockhampton (Australia),

#31

Thomas Robinson

F

6’8″

222

Kansas

5th overall, 2012, Sacramento Kings, Currently with Brooklyn Nets

#32

Mfon Udofia

G

6’2″

180

Georgia Tech

Undrafted, Austin Toros (NBADL)

#33

Durand Scott

G

6’4″

180

Miami (FL)

Undrafted 2013,  Enel Brindisi of the Italian Serie A

#34

Dexter Strickland

G

6’3″

175

N. Carolina

Undrafted 2013, Los Angeles D-Fenders (D-League)

#35

Aaric Murray

C

6’10”

230

La Salle

Undrafted 2014, Panelefsiniakos of the Greek Basket League

#36

Rakeem Buckles

F

6’8″

205

Louisville

Undrafted 2014, Oberwart (Austria)

#37

Lorenzo Brown

G

6’4″

175

N.C. State

52nd overall, 2013, Minnesota Timberwolves

#38

D.J. Richardson

G

6’3″

170

Illinois

Undrafted 2013, Kouvot (Finland)

#39

Peyton Siva

G

6’0″

165

Louisville

56th overall, 2013, Detroit Pistons, Currently with Eric Bayhawks (D-league)

#40

Jon Hood

G

6’6″

185

Kentucky

Undrafted, Reported to be playing in Italy in 2014

#41

Christian Watford

F

6’8″

215

Indiana

Undrafted, Last played for Reno Bighorns

#42

Brandon Paul

G

6’2″

175

Illinois

Undrafted, Last played for Canton Charge

#43

Zeke Marshall

C

6’11”

210

Akron

Undrafted, Last played for Sagesse (Lebanon)

#44

Raymond Penn

G

5’9″

150

Oklahoma St.

Undrafted, Last known to have played for Texas Southern University

#45

Glen Rice

G

6’4″

175

Georgia Tech

35th overall, 2013, Philadelphia 76ers, Currently with Rio Grande Valley Vipers

#46

Tommy Mason-Griffin

G

5’10”

206

Oklahoma

Undrafted 2010, Heidelberg (Germany)

#47

Jeronne Maymon

F

6’6″

235

Marquette

Undrafted,  Hapoel Eilat B.C. of the Israeli Basketball Premier League

#48

Kawhi Leonard

F

6’5″

210

S. Diego St.

2011 15th overall, Indiana Pacers, Currently with San Antonio Spurs

#49

Brendan Lane

F

6’9″

200

UCLA

Undrafted, Mitsubishi Diamond Dolphins

#50

Jamal Coombs-McDaniel

F

6’7″

210

Connecticut

Undrafted, Last known to have played for Hofstra University. Had history of off-field problems throughout college career.

#51

Cory Jefferson

F

6’8″

180

Baylor

60th overall, 2014, San Antonio Spurs, Last played for Brooklyn Nets

 

#52

Ari Stewart

F

6’7″

190

Wake Forest

Undrafted, Last played for University of Southern California, but career was cut short due to academic ineligibility. Also had off-the-court problems at Wake Forest.

#53

Noel Johnson

F

6’7″

180

Clemson

Undrafted 2013, Bashkimi (Kosovo) 

#54

Rashanti Harris

C

6’8″

238

UTEP

Undrafted 2011, Siggiewi (Malta)

#55

Mason Plumlee

F

6’10”

205

Duke

22nd overall, 2013, Brooklyn Nets, Currently with Portland Trail Blazers

#56

Maurice Creek

G

6’5″

200

Indiana

Undrafted 2014,  Zorg en Zekerheid Leiden of the Dutch Basketball League (DBL)

#57

Karron Johnson

F

6’7″

210

Oklahoma St.

Undrafted 2013, Last known to have played for Yambol (Bulgaria)

#58

Nolan Dennis

G

6’5″

185

Baylor

Undrafted 2011, Texas Rim Rockers (ABA)

#59

David Wear

F

6’9″

210

N. Carolina

Undrafted 2014, Last played for New York

#60

Travis Wear

F

6’9″

210

N. Carolina

Undrafted 2014, Sacremento Kings

#61

Richard Howell

F

6’8″

230

N.C. State

Undrafted 2013, Leones de Santo Domingo of the Liga Nacional de Baloncesto (LNB).

#62

Isaiah Armwood

F

6’7″

205

Villanova

Undrafted 2014, Chieti (Italy)

#63

Hollis Thompson

F

6’6″

180

Georgetown

Undrafted 2012, Philadelphia 76ers

#64

Terrence Boyd

F

6’5″

225

list

Undrafted

#65

Leslie McDonald

G

6’4″

195

N. Carolina

Undrafted 2014, Oklahoma City Blue (D-league)

#66

Anthony Marshall

G

6’3″

185

UNLV

Undrafted 2013, Leuven (Belgium)

#67

Shawn Williams

F

6’7″

215

Texas

Undrafted, Graduate assistant at SMU

#68

Lamont Jones

G

5’11”

170

Arizona

Undrafted 2013,  Kumamoto Volters 

#69

Derrick Nix

C

6’9″

275

Michigan St.

Undrafted 2013,  Orléans Loiret Basket of the LNB Pro A.

#70

Andrew Fitzgerald

C

6’9″

245

Oklahoma

Undrafted 2013, Last known to have played for Poitiers (France)

#71

Darius Smith

G

6’2″

180

Connecticut

Undrafted, Last known to have played for East Illnois University

#72

Marshawn Powell

F

6’6″

230

Arkansas

Undrafted, Teviso Basket (Italy)

#73

Junior Cadougan

G

5’11”

185

Marquette

Undrafted 2013, Last known to have played for Sidigas AV (Italy)

#74

Kenny Hall

F

6’8″

215

Tennessee

Undrafted 2014, Santa Cruz Warriors

#75

Garrick Sherman

C

6’10”

220

Michigan St.

Undrafted 2014, Dinamo Tbilisi (Georgia)

#76

Jared Cunningham

G

6’3″

170

Oregon St.

24th overall, 2012, Cleveland Cavaliers, Currently with Idaho Stampede

#77

Darius Morris

G

6’3″

175

Michigan

41st overall, 2011, Brooklyn Nets

#78

Roberto Nelson

G

6’4″

190

Oregon St.

Undrafted 2014, Last known to have played fro C.de Latte BRE (Italy)

#79

Erik Murphy

F

6’10”

220

Florida

49th overall, 2013, Chicago Bulls, Currently with Beşiktaş of the Turkish Basketball League

#80

Trent Lockett

G

6’5″

195

Arizona St.

Undrafted 2013, Last played for Basketball Löwen Braunschweig of the Basketball Bundesliga

#81

Kyryl Natyazhko

C

6’10”

250

Arizona

Undrafted 2012, Last played for Turów Zgorzelec and the Ukrainian national team

#82

Kammeon Holsey

F

6’7″

190

Georgia Tech

Undrafted 2014, Last played for Grand Rapids Drive, D-League)

#83

Chris Braswell

F

6’8″

215

Charlotte

Undrafted 2013, Lapua (Finland)

#84

Rodney McGruder

G

6’4″

195

Kansas St.

Undrafted 2013, Sioux Falls Skyforce, D-League

#85

Jordan Williams

F

6’9″

245

Maryland

36th overall, 2011, New Jersey Nets, Last played for Springfield Armor

#86

Reeves Nelson

F

6’7″

215

UCLA

Undrafted 2012, Panelefsiniakos of the Greek Basket League.

#87

Hassan Whiteside

C

6’11”

210

Marshall

33rd overall, 2010, Sacramento Kings, Currently with Miami Heat

#88

Mangisto Arop

F

6’5″

175

Gonzaga

Undrafted 2014, Finke Baskets (Germany)

#89

Aaron Dotson

G

6’4″

180

LSU

Undrafted, Last played for Utah University. Left the program due to knee problems in 2013.

#90

Terrell Vinson

F

6’6″

200

UMass

Undrafted 2013, Timba Timis (Romania)

#91

Tristan Spurlock

F

6’7″

215

Virginia

Undrafted 2014, Last played for Ponce (Puerto Rico)

#92

Mike Moser

F

6’8″

200

UCLA

Undrafted 2014, Hapoel Holon of the Israeli Basketball Premier League.

#93

Greg Smith

C

6’9″

240

Fresno St.

Undrafted 2014, Last played for Dallas Mavericks

#94

Jamil Wilson

F

6’7″

211

Oregon

Undrafted 2014, Last known to have played for Phoenix Suns

#95

Dane Miller

F

6’5″

180

Rutgers

Undrafted 2014, Oklahoma City Blue (D-League)

#96

Devin Booker

F

6’7″

220

Clemson

Undrafted 2013, Chalon (France)

#97

Naji Hibbert

G

6’6″

195

Texas A&M

Undrafted 2014, Last known to have played for Doxa Lefkadas (Greece)

#98

Roger Franklin

F

6’4″

203

Oklahoma St.

Undrafted 2013, Black Star Mersch in the Luxembourgian Total League.

#99

Chris Colvin

G

6’2″

174

Iowa St.

Undrafted 2013, Bloomington Flex (MPBA)

#100

Rodney Williams

F

6’5″

180

Minnesota

Undrafted 2013, Oklahoma City Blue (D-League)

#101

Andrew Bock

G

6’1″

160

Creighton

Undrafted 2014, Last known to have played for Fraport SKY II (Germany)

#102

D.J. Byrd

G

6’4″

195

Purdue

Undrafted 2013, Last played for London Lightning (Canada)

#103

Derek Elston

F

6’8″

220

Indiana

Undrafted 2013, Plymouth Raiders (United Kingdom)

#104

Erik Williams

F

6’6″

190

Marquette

Undrafted, Last known to have transferred to Sam Houston State from Marquette

#105

Shawn Kemp

C

6’9″

235

Auburn

Undrafted, just finished senior season with University of Washington

#106

Xavier Thames

G

6’3″

177

Washington St.

Undrafted 2014, Last played for Fort Wayne Mad Ants (2015)

#107

Jordan Hulls

G

6’0″

170

Indiana

Undrafted 2013, Limburg United of the Belgian League.

#108

C.J. Wilcox

G

6’6″

170

Washington

28th overall, 2014, Los Angeles Clippers

#109

Carlos Lopez

F

6’9″

200

UNLV

Undrafted 2014, San German (Puerto Rico)

#110

Tim Frazier

G

6’2″

160

Penn St.

Undrafted 2014, Portland Trail Blazers

#111

Jarred Shaw

C

6’10”

210

Oklahoma St.

Undrafted 2014, Last played for Mamak DSI (Turkey 2014-15)

#112

Bawa Muniru

C

7’0″

255

Indiana

Undrafted, Last known to have played for Lee University in Cleveland.

#113

Roscoe Davis

F

6’10”

205

list

Undrafted 2011, Last known to have played for GIE Maile M

#114

Victor Rudd

F

6’7″

200

Arizona St.

Undrafted 2014, Delaware 87ers (D-league)

#115

Demetrius Walker

G

6’4″

200

Arizona St.

Undrafted 2014, was kicked off team for ‘breaking team rules’

#116

Sam Dower

F

6’9″

220

Gonzaga

Undrafted 2014, BK Valmiera(Latvia)

#117

Lakeem Jackson

F

6’5″

215

South Carolina

Undrafted 2013, Koeln Rh. Stars (Germany)

#118

Mike Bruesewitz

F

6’6″

190

Wisconsin

Undrafted 2013, Cynergi Virtus (Malta)

#119

Nick Russell

G

6’4″

180

Kansas St.

Undrafted 2014, Walter Tigers (Germany)

#120

Tyler Griffey

F

6’8″

210

Illinois

Undrafted 2013,  Allianz Swans Gmunden of the Austrian Basketball League

#121

Steven Pledger

G

6’3″

185

Oklahoma

Undrafted 2013 Dundgovi Hawks (Mongolia)

#122

Kevin Parrom

F

6’6″

200

Arizona

Undrafted, Last known to have signed with Pyrinto Tampere (Finland) in 2014

#123

DaShonte Riley

C

6’11”

220

Syracuse

Undrafted 2014, Last known to have played with Mornar Bar (Montenegro) in 2014

#124

Lamar Patterson

F

6’5″

220

Pittsburgh

48th overall, 2014, Milwaukee Bucks (Currently with Atlanta Hawks)

#125

Jason Calliste

G

6’2″

175

Detroit

Undrafted 2014, Maine Red Claws (D-league)

#126

Andre Malone

G

6’4″

195

Auburn

Undrafted, Last known to have played for university of Rhode Island.

#127

Deshawn Painter

C

6’9″

210

N.C. State

Undrafted 2013, Last known to have played for Trefl Sopot (Poland 2014)

#128

Joseph Bertrand

G

6’4″

170

Illinois

Undrafted 2014, Mazatlan (Mexico)

#129

Diamond Taylor

G

6’3″

170

Wisconsin

Undrafted, kicked off Wisconsin’s basketball team, then suspended indefinitely with new team Southern Illnois

#130

Joe Burton

C

6’7″

270

Oregon St.

Undrafted 2013, Evreux (France)

#131

Kourtney Roberson

F

6’9″

215

Texas A&M

Undrafted 2015, Carilsheim (Germany)

#132

Terrance Shannon

F

6’7″

190

Florida St.

Undrafted 2014, Last known to have played for Fukushima Firebirds (Japan)

#133

Scott Wood

G

6’6″

170

N.C. State

Undrafted 2013, Last played for UCAM Murcia

#134

Garrius Adams

F

6’5″

185

Miami (FL)

Undrafted 2014, Last played for Liege (Belgium 2014-15)

#135

Brian Oliver

F

6’6″

190

Georgia Tech

Undrafted 2014, Last known to have played for Mississauga Power of the National Basketball League of Canada (NBL)

#136

Michael Dixon

G

6’0″

165

Missouri

Undrafted 2014, CEZ Nymburk (Czech Republic)

#137

Matt Vogrich

G

6’4″

180

Michigan

Undrafted, whereabouts unknown

#138

A.J. Walton

G

6’0″

175

Baylor

Undrafted 2013, Last known to have played for  Asseco Gydnia (Poland)

#139

Dalton Pepper

G

6’5″

215

West Virginia

Undrafted 2014, MKS DG (Poland)

#140

Khris Middleton

F

6’7″

205

Texas A&M

39th overall, 2012, Detroit Pistons, Currently with Milwaukee Bucks

#141

Jordan Swing

F

6’6″

200

W. Kentucky

Undrafted 2014, Lakeside L. (Australia)

#142

Brandon Triche

G

6’3″

210

Syracuse

Undrafted 2013, Last played for Virtus Roma of the Lega Basket Serie A. (2015)

#143

Johnnie Lacy

G

5’10”

160

Providence

Undrafted, whereabouts unknown

#144

Anthony Stover

C

6’9″

210

UCLA

Undrafted 2014, Rochester Razorsharks

#145

Tyler Haws

G

6’5″

185

BYU

Undrafted 2015

#146

Glenn Bryant

F

6’8″

200

Arkansas

Undrafted  2014, Last played for Mornar Bar (Montenegro)

#147

Clarence Trent

F

6’6″

230

Washington

Undrafted 2014, Team Manchester (Eurobasket S.League)

#148

Ramon Galloway

G

6’2″

175

South Carolina

Undrafted 2013, Openjobmetis V. (Italy)

#149

Donnovan Kirk

F

6’7″

210

Miami (FL)

Undrafted 2014, Koroivos (Greece)

#150

Donte Hill

G

6’4″

200

Clemson

Undrafted 2013, Last known to have played for BK Barsy Atyrau (Kazakhstan)

Continuing our breakdown method from part II, we look to examine a few statistics concerning the class of 2009.

Firstly, only 15 players were not known to have any kind of professional basketball stint post-college, whether it was in the NBA or abroad in Europe. So that it makes it 90% of players on the Rivals ranking that were involved with basketball professionally at some point. It seems safe to say that if you make it on Rival’s list, you have a great shot at experiencing pro basketball.

We also want to look at what proportion of the five, four and three star recruits were drafted, which gives us an indication of what proportion became NBA level talent. There are a couple of players that were drafted but no longer play in the NBA, as well as undrafted players who have latched onto an NBA team, but we find that such outliers don’t detract from our result below.

Fraction & Percent Drafted

Five Star 15/25 60.0%
Four Star 14/80 17.5%
Three Star 3/45 6.7%

We see there is a significant drop off with each level of recruit, especially from the five to four star recruits.

In football, there was a scenario where though higher ranked players had a higher probability of making into the NFL, for the players that do make it to the NFL, their talent level doesn’t correlate with Rivals Ranking.

Well for basketball, we can simply look at a list of players that made it into the NBA for each level of recruit.

5 star: John Wall, Demarcus Cousins, Derrick Favors, Avery Bradley, Eric Bledsoe, Ryan Kelly, Lance Stephenson, etc.

4 star: Kawhi Leonard, Thomas Robinson, Lorenzo Brown, Corey Jefferson, Glen Rice, Mason Plumlee, Jared Cunningham, Darius Morris, Hassan Whiteside, etc.

3 star: Lamar Patterson, CJ Wilcoz, Khris Middleton

It’s safe to say that the three tiers have disparate quality. Though there are some impact players among four star recruits, you can reasonably say that for every 4 star recruit, there is a better player among the five star recruits.

Its hardly a surprise that rivals rankings are very accurate for basketball, with a particularly heavy emphasis on five star recruits. The college game is often dominated by college freshman, most of whom were high ranking recruits. That’s not to say top recruits can’t bust, but you sure have a heck of a lot better chance of becoming an elite player if you are a high ranking recruit than if you are a low ranking recruit.

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