World Series Contenders

Now that half the baseball season is done, it’s time for some still-too-early projections for this year’s World Series winner.

Why too early? The reigning champion San Francisco Giants were in fourth place this time last year and many so-called ‘experts’ (yours truly included) had them nowhere near the top of any power rankings list. Yet, they overpowered the Phils’ vaunted rotation before slaying Texas, prompting Philly to one-up everyone by signing yet another ace to put them atop most everyone’s list of top teams.

That said, there’s not much else to be excited about in the senior circuit, while the AL is loaded again.

Cleveland (120:1) Although not really taken seriously still on the national front (or obviously by me based on those odds), last year’s doormat, the Cleveland Indians, started hot (30-15 by May 23) and after struggling through most of June, still find themselves atop the albeit unimpressive AL Central.

How? First-time all-stars Asdrubal Cabrera (.292AVG, 14HR, 49 RBIs) and Chris Perez (20 saves, 2.30 ERA) are certainly a big part of the reason, but they went 10-18 without suddenly-reborn DH Travis Hafner (.338 AVG, .554 SLG in 139 at bats) from May 18 through June16, yet now the Haf’ is back.

St. Louis (100:1) The Cardinals’ odds took a big hit, before the season even began, when ace Adam Wainright (39 wins the last two years) had Tommy John surgery, thus ending his season. That they’re even mentioned here is out of respect for the managing capabilities of Tony LaRussa and his hitting machine Albert Pujols, who’s wasn’t hitting up to his lofty standards and is currently on the DL.

The Cards have benefited from Lance Berkman’s (1.020 OPS) bat (notice I didn’t say glove) and the pitching of starters Kyle Lohse (8-5, 2.97 ERA) and Jaime Garcia (7-3, 3.33 ERA).

San Francisco (95:1) It’s hard imagining the Giants repeating with last year’s rookie-of-the-year catcher Buster Posey shelved for the season, but San Fran’s starting rotation of Lincecum (6-6, 3.04), Cain (7-4, 3.02), and surprise all-star Ryan Vogelsong (6-1, 2.13) has kept them near the Phillies for best record in the NL.

Other nagging injuries to one-time slugger Pat Burrell and former batting champ, Freddy Sanchez, have put more pressure on the staff and make it seem even less unlikely their offense can muster enough runs in October to support a repeat, but stranger things have happened.

Milwaukee (40:1) Milwaukee ranks higher than the defending champs mainly due to injuries. Although the Brew Crew have won exactly one playoff game in the 29 years since their last World Series appearance, they’re still a fun team with plenty of talent as evidenced by the three All-Star starters in Fielder (.416 OBP, .581 SLG), Weeks (15 HRs, 20 doubles), and Braun (.320 AVG, .520 SLG).

Former Cy Young winner Zack Greinke has yet to get on track since his cracked ribs incident (7-3, but a 5.66 ERA), but once he does the team will have enough to compete with San Fran’s touted starters and enough offense to get past them.

Texas (32:1) The Rangers’ hangover from losing the World Series to the Giants and Cliff Lee to the Phillies has taken longer than expected to get over. As of Monday, the team sat just four games over .500, despite their scary lineup, superior infield defense, and more-than-adequate pitching.

After moving quickly to replace Lee with Adrian Beltre (16 HRs, 64 RBIs), and upsetting the seemingly now-contented-infielder Michael Young (.318 AVG, 55 RBIs) in the process, the reigning AL Champs still look good on paper, and pose a threat to whomever they might play.

Atlanta (30:1) The Braves are quietly flying under Philadelphia’s immense radar with the second best record in the NL, despite Dan Uggla’s less-than-stellar performance (.175 AVG over 315 at-bats) thus far.

Years of regular season dominance coupled with subsequent playoff disappointments (11 straight playoff berths without winning it) make them an interesting case, but with new leadership (enter first-year manager Fredi Gonzalez) comes a clean slate. In any case, Jurrjens (11-3, 1.89 ERA) and Hanson (9-4, 2.62) can make anyone look good.

Tampa Bay (25:1) Despite losing several stars from last year’s AL East-winning club (Crawford, Soriano, Pena, and Garza), Joe Maddon has his $41.9 million payroll-ed team back on course to compete again this year, sitting just slightly behind the combined $357 million salaried-teams up in the Bronx and at Fenway.

This year’s team has been buoyed by free-agent acquisitions Johnny Damon (.283 AVG, 41 Runs), Kyle Farnsworth (17 saves, 2.08 ERA) and Casey Kotchman (.338 AVG in 225 at bats) as well as the resurgence of James Shields (8-5, 2.45 ERA) to go along with starters David Price (8-7, 3.56 ERA) and rookie Jeremy Hellickson (8-7, 3.21 ERA).

NY Yankees (6:1) The Bombers, with baseball’s best record, sit just behind nemesis and second-place Boston here largely due to

this writer’s lack-of-confidence that any seven-game series where you have to start 4-5 games (depending on how many times all-star snub C.C. Sabathia can go) with some combination of Burnett/Hughes/Colon/Garcia/Nova instead of one-time rock Andy Pettitte (19-10, 3.83 career postseason) is going to be very difficult.

They clearly have the offense, even with Jeter hitting .270, to keep pace with most anyone, but that staff scares me (I’m not a hitter though) come October.

Boston (5:1) The Sox get the nod here largely due to their aforementioned starting rotation’s track record as opposed to the Yanks. Moreover, Beckett (7-3, 2.12 ERA) has made his hay in October (7-3, 3.07 career postseason) and has the lefty Jon Lester right behind him this year (10-4, 3.43 ERA).

Adrian Gonzalez’ bat (.348, 16 HRs, 75 RBIs) is the closest thing to replacing Manny’s once supreme production that led to the Red Sox Nation hoisting the trophy twice in the last seven years.

Philadelphia (2:1) The Phils punched their playoff tickets the second they swooped in and inked Cliff Lee to a five-year $120 million deal as a free-agent. Only when Atlanta had Steve Avery at his height (early 90′s) to go along with Glavine, Smoltz, and Maddux has any team in modern history had such an advantage on the hill.

They’ll need every bit of it though, as their offense could use a lot more, especially come October, from Howard (.478 SLG) and Jimmy Rollins (.693 OPS). If Dominic Brown can step into the hot-prospect he’s been hyped to be, maybe they’ll have a replacement for the clearly just-about-done 39-year old Raul Ibanez (.674 OPS, woeful defense, $11.5 million salary).