London—Analysts on the Asian Desk at MI6 have concluded that China’s People’s Liberation Army has moved as many as 100,000 troops to its border with North Korea ostensibly to block refugees from fleeing into China in the event of the death of Kim Jong-II, the president of the pariah state.From December,
North Korea has announced it will also reinforce its border with South Korea after accusing its neighbour of “provocation beyond the danger level”. One analyst called it “the most explosive situation since the Korean War”.
The intelligence analysts – working with highly classified reports from the area by agents of the Secret Intelligence Service – believe the movements are a direct result of the unsuccessful attempt by four leading Beijing surgeons, who operated on the ailing Kim in August in a Pyongyang military clinic, to correct heart failure that led to a stroke.“In the past month, we have had clear evidence that Kim’s condition has deteriorated”, confirmed a senior intelligence source who was one of the foreign delegates at the celebrations of North Korea’s 60th anniversary last month.I
n the past week, both MI6 and the Foreign Office have drawn up – along with the State Department and the CIA – contingency plans in the event of Kim’s death. The plans are a comprehensive overview of how to deal with chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear attacks following Kim’s death.The possibilities are reinforced by photo-interpreters, who have queried State-issued photographs of Kim taken before his surgery.“They show a man already exceedingly frail and older than his given sixty-six years”, said an analyst. “The probability is that his iron grip on the country has gone”.
A key date will come on December 10 when North Korea will cut all air links with the outside world. This has escalated the possibility of a formal announcement of Kim’s death on that day – or that North Korea was even planning some attack.Foreign Missions in the South Korean capital, Seoul, have briefed their Foreign Ministers that the possibility of conflict in the area is now at “severe” level.
The 248-kilometre border between the two countries, which have been at war technically since North Korea invaded the South in 1950, was briefly reopened last year as relations between the two countries appeared to be thawing. Since then, North Korea has carried out a series of intimidating missile tests.Meanwhile, Lee Myung Bak, the new South Korean president, has taken a more conservative line with North Korea.
Again, MI6 analysts continue to believe this is also directly linked to the failing health of Kim – which is likely to produce a power struggle within the pariah regime and possibly lead to a popular uprising.“The problem we have is trying to decide that if Kim dies, who will take over? And during that process could there be a ‘palace revolution’ which in turn could lead to conflict beyond North Korea’s border if there is an uprising within North Korea” say the analysts. Sources in the Chinese town of Dangong on the border with North Korea have described the situation there “as on a war footing”.
Gordon Thomas is the author of a new edition of Gideon’s Spies: The Inside Story of Israel’s Legendary Secret Service, The Mossad, by JR Books of London and available on Amazon Books.
(C) G-2 Bulletin, Washington D.C., USA, and Gordon Thomas.