The Tri-Nations Cup will be decided in Brisbane this Saturday, when the Wallabies meet the All Blacks in a Test that both national teams must win to preserve their credibility.
The Australians and the New Zealanders were knocked out of the Rugby World Cup in France last year and both teams have struggled to win favor with disappointed fans. While both teams can win the Tri-Nations, the competition so far has done little to enhance the reputations of either team.
The Wallabies enter the home match smarting from a humiliating 53–8 loss to the Springboks in Johannesburg two weeks ago. Earlier in the competition they were outclassed by the All Blacks 29–10 in Auckland.
The All Blacks, too, have fallen to both the Wallabies and the Springboks in the competition, losing to the South Africans for the first time at Carisbrook in Dunedin, a record-breaking loss that revived fan discontent.
On paper, the All Blacks are the better team, but the Wallabies have the home-ground advantage. And while the All Blacks are better on the road than any other national team, home-ground advantages are significant in the Tri-Nations.
Bledisloe Cup
The result also determines whether the Wallabies will remain alive in the Bledisloe Cup competition, the trophy for trans-Tasman clashes.
If the Wallabies win in Brisbane, they will lead the cup competition two games to one and will have to either win or draw in Hong Kong later this year to take the cup back from the All Blacks.
If the Wallabies lose in Brisbane, they lose both the Tri-Nations and the Bledisloe Cup. A drawn cup series would see the cup stay with the All Blacks.
By all accounts, the Wallabies have been devastated by their thrashing in Johannesburg, which was also a humiliating defeat for their coach, Robbie Deans—the savior of Australian rugby. The Wallabies had been struggling for several years, but this season Deans transformed the muddling side into a credible team.
McCaw and Carter
The All Blacks deserve to be favorites for many reasons, but the two dominant reasons are the captain, openside flanker Richie McCaw, and the flyhalf, Dan Carter.
Both are widely considered to be the best players in the world in their positions and both have crucial leadership roles within the All Blacks. McCaw is an inspirational leader, who runs the forwards, while the brilliant Carter runs the backline.
In an ironic twist, Deans coached both McCaw and Carter in the Canterbury Crusaders, who won the Super 14 competition before Deans assumed the Wallaby coaching role.
The Wallaby flyhalf, Matt Giteau, has brilliant skills as well. However, he makes too many mistakes to be considered in the same class as the faultless Carter. And Giteau’s strategic thinking isn’t as sound as Carter’s.
Because of the importance of the Test to both sides, an epic contest is guaranteed. I predict an All Blacks victory, but the fans at Suncorp Stadium will be cheering the Wallabies at home, which could tip the balance. The final question is: Will the Johannesburg loss motivate or devastate the Wallabies?
