Supporters of ousted Honduran President Manuel Zelaya dance during a rally outside the congress building in Tegucigalpa on November 4, 2009. (Jose Cabezas/AFP/Getty Images)
Days after he applauded an agreement between his camp and that of a de facto government as a "triumph" for democracy, Zelaya is looking increasingly unlikely to be let back to office to serve the last few months of his term.
Washington also feted the deal between Zelaya and de facto leader Roberto Micheletti as a way to end the tense deadlock since a June 28 coup, but the deal puts Zelaya's return in the hands of Congress, which is stalling on the issue.
The United States, Honduras's top trading partner, has stopped pushing for Zelaya to be reinstated as part of ending Central America's worst political crisis in two decades.
"The accord favors the de facto government," said political consultant Thelma Mejia. "It's a straitjacket for Zelaya."
Zelaya, a forestry magnate who spooked conservative opponents when he grew close to socialist Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, claims last week's pact paved the way for him to return and serve until the end of his term in January.
But the language of the accord leaves it to Congress to decide, and leaders of the 128-seat unicameral Congress declined on Tuesday to call a special session to debate the matter, showing they are in no hurry to bring Zelaya back.
U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Tom Shannon, who was in Tegucigalpa to push the two sides to sign a deal, told CNN on Tuesday that international recognition of Honduras' Nov. 29 presidential vote was not contingent on a Zelaya restitution. He said the issue was up to Congress.
Zelaya promptly demanded the United States clarify its position, saying it was failing to respect the accords if it "recognizes the elections without reversing the coup."
The Spirit or the Letter
Political analysts say most lawmakers oppose a Zelaya return and are convinced that if they stall until the November election, the world will recognize a new Honduran leader and lift measures imposed to punish the country over the coup.
"Zelaya committed many errors in this negotiation. It's against all his interests," said analyst Juan Ramon Martinez.
The United States, Europe and multilateral groups cut aid that is key to Honduras, a poor country that produces and exports coffee and textiles.
Zelaya, who was forced into exile on June 28 and has been holed up in the Brazilian embassy since sneaking back in September, says the spirit of the accord is to bring him back.
He says holding the November election under a government that grabbed power via a coup will make the result illegitimate.
The Organization of American States, or OAS, agrees that is the spirit of the deal, which it backed. However, it does not appear to have any cards to play to force Congress to act.
The accord says the two sides must form a unity cabinet by Thursday, but Zelaya has rejected a Micheletti move to begin naming ministers, calling it an offense to think of forming a cabinet without Congress first deciding who would lead it.
With its eyes on the upcoming election, Micheletti's government, installed by Congress after Zelaya's ouster, says the accord can be fulfilled without Zelaya returning.
"They are hoping governments of other countries will decide to recognize results of the election, even if they don't return Zelaya," said independent political analyst Alvaro Calix.
The Supreme Court is due to give its opinion on the legality of a Zelaya return. The court is seen unlikely to reverse its backing of the coup on grounds that Zelaya illegally sought support to change the constitution to allow presidential re-election, something he denies.
Congress wants to hear this view before it votes, even though the opinion is non-binding.
Two leftist presidential candidates, neither of them front-runners, have threatened to boycott the election and call for social unrest if Zelaya is not reinstated.
Even if Congress does vote, most lawmakers from Zelaya's Liberal Party now back Micheletti. Neither can he count on backing from the main opposition National Party, whose election candidate Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo is ahead in opinion polls.
National Party lawmakers are seen eager to win foreign recognition of the vote, but are wary of supporting a Zelaya return as it could scare away some voters.
