Workers of the Afghan Election Commission audit and recount ballots at the Independent Elections Commission (IEC) warehouse in Kabul on October 7, 2009. (Shah Marai/AFP/Getty Images)
Almost two months after polling day, the U.N.-backed election watchdog is still sifting through piles of allegedly suspicious ballots to determine if Karzai is the outright winner or must face a second vote against his runner-up.
Peter Galbraith, a senior U.S. diplomat who was fired last month from his U.N. position in Afghanistan in a row over election fraud, said the second round looked inevitable.
"I expect that by the end of this week the Election Complaints Commission will have announced its review," Galbraith, known to be close to the U.S. envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan Richard Holbrooke, told the BBC's Hard Talk programme.
"That result is likely to bring Karzai below 50 percent. Hopefully the run-off can be held sometime before the first week of November which is still possible in terms of weather."
Karzai, who got 54.6 percent of the vote in the first round, has acknowledged that some fraud had taken place but not on a big enough scale to require a second round. He has blamed some Western media and officials for exaggerating the extent of fraud.
The incumbent will, however, be forced into a run-off against ex-foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah if a fraud investigation cuts his share of the vote below 50 percent.
In a blow to the election watchdog's credibility, one of its Afghan members, Mustafa Barakzai, said earlier this week he would quit because he believed foreigners were exerting influence over the body. On Wednesday, Karzai urged him to stay.
"Understanding your concern, I would prefer you to continue your job instead of resigning. This will be for the good of the Afghan nation," Karzai was quoted as saying in a letter to Barakzai, released to the media on Wednesday.
"I call on the Electoral Complaints Commission to take measures to placate your concerns and those of the people of Afghanistan," he said.
Barakzai was appointed to the commission by Afghanistan's Supreme Court. A diplomatic source said he was seen as supporter of Karzai and may have quit ahead of the announcement to avoid being associated with a ruling that would require a second round.
Karzai himself has criticised "outside circles" for interfering in the election. In an interview with ABC on Tuesday, he cast doubt on the ECC, saying "it needed to prove it is impartial and fair".
