It is interesting that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) currently reports that deaths from the flu are actually lower this year than in previous years. Numbers are even below what’s known as the “epidemic threshold” for similar time periods in previous, non-pandemic years.
In the 2007–2008 flu season, the CDC reported that the peak death rate (for pneumonia and influenza) was 9 percent. The highest death rate since the novel H1N1 pandemic began in early 2009 has only been 6.0 percent. [1]
The CDC estimates that most people who contract the virus are expected to recover without medical attention or any significant consequences. Ninety percent of those who suffered complications from H1N1 since early 2009 also had either asthma or a seizure disorder. Those with preexisting or underlying medical conditions (asthma, seizure disorder, diabetes, heart disease, and pregnancy) are at increased risk of suffering complications, which is typical for influenza. [2]
Epidemiologists have found that not only is the H1N1 virus associated with milder and less-lethal cases of the flu but also is less easily transmitted from person to person than the regular flu strains. Therefore, less of the population is at risk for this flu pandemic, and those that do contract it are less likely to suffer complications leading to hospitalization or death.
If the death rate in this year’s pandemic novel H1N1 outbreak is lower than previous non-pandemic years, what is all the media fuss about? Why are authorities mandating health care workers and others receive immunizations for H1N1?
To understand this we need to look back at the death rate from influenza in the last century. These numbers have been carefully tracked by Public Health Organizations like the CDC.
The 1917–1918 flu epidemic was one of the worst on record. Various theories exist explaining why this epidemic was worse than all others, but several facts are clear. First, this epidemic took place at the end of the World War I, and it took root in military facilities that were overcrowded.
Second, areas most heavily affected by the flu were suffering from lack of adequate food, medical care, and basic hygiene. Third, this was the first time that aspirin had ever been recommended as treatment for the flu.
Since the great Spanish Flu Pandemic of 1918, death rates from the flu have been steadily falling. This decline was initially quite steep, but it leveled off in the mid-1950s. The drop in death rate could not be correlated with the introduction of the influenza vaccination in the 1940s since it wasn’t even available for widespread use until nearly 1980. [3]
References:
1. 2008–2009 Influenza Season Week 36 ending Sept. 12, 2009. www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly
2. "What to do if you get flu-like symptoms” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. May 7, 2009.
3. Peter Doshi, AM. American Journal of Public Health, May 2008, Vol 98, No. 5: 939–945.
Dr. Whitmont is a classical homeopathic physician with a private practice in Rhinebeck, N.Y., and New York City. His Web site is Homeopathicmd.com
