Ireland's Foreign Minister Michael Martin expects politicking over the Lisbon Treaty to get dirty as the vote approaches. (Dominique Faget/AFP/Getty Images)
Voters in Ireland, which represents less than 1 percent of the EU's near half a billion population, will decide the fate of the bloc's global ambitions on Oct. 2 when they go to the polls, for a second time, on a charter designed to give the EU a greater voice in world affairs.
"I think you are going to get an onslaught in the next two weeks of negativity about Europe, of misinformation and so on," Martin said in an interview with Reuters.
"The Yes campaign has to be up for that and it is all to play for."
Opinion polls suggest Ireland will approve the treaty, which is intended to speed up decision-making in the 27-member union, but a significant proportion of the electorate is undecided and officials are worried the government's deep unpopularity will generate a large protest vote.
"It is far too early to call it," said Martin from his office at Iveagh House, the headquarters of the Department of Foreign Affairs and a former home of the Guinness brewing clan.
The Europe of Freedom and Democracy (EFD) group, the main eurosceptic grouping in the European Parliament, plans to send a leaflet to every Irish home next week saying the treaty would make Ireland a "province" of an "EU state", leading to mass immigration.
Martin has said the EFD leaflet was being spearheaded by the UK Independence Party, which he said was interfering in Irish politics to further an extreme nationalist agenda.
Coir, an anti-Lisbon organisation with strong links to anti-abortion group Youth Defence, has plastered Dublin with posters warning the treaty will cause a cut in the minimum wage.
Coir's claim has been rejected by the government but in working class areas of Dublin, where recession has hit hard, the eye-catching posters have struck a chord.
No Domestic Political Fallout
Analysts have said Prime Minister Brian Cowen, whose popularity levels are at record lows amid anger over his handling of the economy, would probably lose his job if Ireland votes No to Lisbon next month.But Martin insisted there would be no domestic political fallout in the event of a second rejection.
"This (Lisbon) is above the Taoiseach (prime minister) and above party politics," said the former high school teacher. "There won't be a general election.
The European Union, however, is likely to be plunged into crisis if the Irish result is No.
Only three other countries have yet to ratify it. Germany's upper house of parliament backed legislative changes on Friday that pave the way for it to be passed.
But eurosceptic presidents in Poland and the Czech Republic are waiting for an Irish Yes before approving it.
Martin says another No vote would hit Ireland's reputation hard, particularly after Dublin won concessions from Brussels like the right to retain an Irish commissioner.
"Europe would be scratching their heads and saying, 'We did what they asked. Why would they not agree to what is a modest set of reforms to the EU, which will make Europe more effective?."
To try and restore investor trust and help revive what was once Europe's fastest-growing economy, Ireland is holding a brainstorming forum for 180 leading Irish names in business and culture from around the world over the next three days.
