China’s jobless situation is “very grave” with millions of graduates and migrant workers yet to find work as companies continue to struggle with the effects of the global slump, Chinese authorities said last Tuesday. However, some analysts believe the actual unemployment rate may be much higher than official figures indicate.
"The employment situation in China is still very grave. We are still under enormous pressure to provide employment services," said Wang Yadong, a senior official of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security.
"To make things worse, the impact of the international financial crisis has still not bottomed out," Wang said. "A lot of companies are still facing business difficulties, posing big unemployment risks."
China's urban registered unemployment rate stood at 4.3 percent in the second quarter, unchanged from the first quarter and up from 4.2 percent at the end of 2008, Wang said at a news conference.
According to Wang, more than four million rural migrant workers, about 3 percent of the 147 million moving to cities for jobs by June, are still looking for jobs. Moreover, about three million recent university graduates, one-third of the total, are not yet employed.
Cai Chongguo, an editor of the China Labor Bulletin in France, does not think the official figures reflect China’s real jobless situation.
"The urban registered unemployment rate does not include migrant workers, the surplus labor in rural areas and college graduates. In addition, not all of the urban workers who lost their jobs would register with the government. So the real unemployment rate should be much higher than 4.3 percent," said Cai.
Mr. Liao, a resident of Helongjiang Province, believes the local unemployment rate is at least 30 percent, citing the examples of his families and friends. “A lot of people used to be able to make a living by doing small businesses, but it becomes a lot harder to survive recently… The publicized numbers and the real ones seem to differ simply too greatly.” said Liao.
Guo Yongfeng, the founder of the Association of Chinese Citizens for Monitoring the Government, living in Shenzhen City of southern China, thinks migrant workers are much harder hit by the global slump than local workers.
“Many migrants lost jobs when large numbers of factories closed last year. They had to go back early to their hometown for the Spring Festival holiday, hoping that they could find another job after they came back. However, many of them still couldn’t get employment. Some of them had to go to other cities, like Beijing or Shanghai, to try their luck. It is becoming worse and worse,” said Guo.
In analysis of the current economic situation, Cai does not believe Beijing's four trillion yuan (US$586 billion) stimulus plan would help much with the job market, partly because 70 percent of the money mainly created a limited number of construction jobs, having been pumped into building highways and other infrastructure works.
“The global crisis has not bottomed out. The global demand for Chinese exports has not increased much yet. In reality, a lot of factories that produce export products are still laying off workers or not hiring. I think the job market won’t recover till next year,” said Cai.
Read the original Chinese article.
