Job seekers visit the Shaanxi Spring Job Fair at the International Exhibition Center in March. (China Photos/Getty Images)
Critics don’t believe the Chinese regime’s registered unemployment statistics reflect the true situation in China. "The old statistical method is not only unscientific but also worthless. Government staff will be the only ones who read it. They are just fooling themselves and using it for comparison between various local governments. It doesn't have any statistical reference value," said Mr. Xiao Shu, a blogger who writes about social issues in China.
The regime’s official unemployment statistics were 4.2 percent in March. The nation's Five-Year-Plan was to keep unemployment under 4.6 percent, a goal that has no statistical reference value, but serves a political purpose.
If the GDP is indeed growing at over 10 percent a year, there should be a labor shortage in China. If there is no labor shortage, and instead unemployment is high, then it begs the question of whether the economy has indeed been growing.
Drexel University assistant professor Dr. Xie Tian said, "The Chinese regime has created an illusion of a surging economy in the last 20 years or so. This surge is tied to the GDP [gross domestic product]. If the GDP is indeed growing at over 10 percent a year, there should be a labor shortage in China. If there is no labor shortage, and instead unemployment is high, then it begs the question of whether the economy has indeed been growing. Using standard global measures, China's unemployment rate may be over 20 percent."
A report by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences states that China's unemployment rate in urbanized areas climbed to 9.4 percent, which is well above the internationally established warning threshold of 7 percent. About three years ago, Zeng Yanbo, of Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, said that if excess labor in rural areas is taken into account, China's unemployment was as high as 20 percent. The figure would be even higher if including those who were furloughed.
Professor Zeng Xiangquan of the People's University in Beijing and serving as an expert at China's National Bureau of Statistics said that in the last three years, internally reported unemployment rates have been consistently over 20 percent.
Xiao Shu said that the government's extremely wrong numbers are a result of the political system. He said, "Government entities have too much vested interest in reporting positive numbers. Local governments are seeking to establish themselves, and a high unemployment rate could tarnish the officials' political evaluations. Given the situation, many statistics are fraudulent. In addition to unemployment, accreditation of colleges is another area with significant fraud."
China experts say the Chinese regime only reports the good news and hides the bad news, brushing aside the plight of the common people. Dr. Xie thinks the regime is unlikely to change its practice.
"We first have to realize that the regime is the source of the fraud. They are lying. They know the figures are not real but are using them to fool others. It's completely futile to try to persuade the government to give up lying. It is as futile as trying to convince the government to change from a dictatorship to a democracy," said Dr. Xie.
Scholars don’t believe the regime will switch to the internationally recognized statistical method because their desire for political capital outweighs the need for truthful information. The regime fears real unemployment numbers will make them appear incompetent.
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