Under the current rules, the anti-U.S., socialist leader must leave office in 2013, but he wants the chance to run for at least one more six-year term. Polls show voters are evenly split over the proposal, so a narrow result one way or the other is the most likely outcome.
Following are scenarios on the possible impact of outcomes of the Feb. 15 referendum on removing a two term limit for Venezuelan elected officials.
Chavez Wins
If he wins, Chavez may push ahead with plans to speed up the redistribution of agricultural land and give more state funds to grassroots groups allied with his government.
But low oil prices mean government income is shrinking and Chavez will find it hard to fund a dramatic expansion of social programs or leftist policies such as nationalizations this year.
Chavez Loses, Accepts Defeat
A loss would be a hard blow for Chavez. A similar re-election proposal was defeated in 2007, deflating the Cuba ally's plans to radically and rapidly turn Venezuela into the world's first "21st Century socialist" state.
With economic problems beginning to bite, a new defeat would put Chavez in a difficult position even among supporters who may begin to see him as a lame-duck, creating splits within his movement.
Venezuela's still-divided opposition would be emboldened by its third electoral gain in a row and would have the momentum behind it to build toward the 2012 presidential election. Notoriously fractious, the opposition does not yet have an obvious candidate however, and there is no guarantee it would defeat Chavez's Socialist Party even without him at the helm.
Chavez Loses But Tries To Extend Rule
Chavez could respond to a referendum defeat by looking for other ways to stay in office after his current six-year term ends in 2013. The most likely of these would be to emulate his ally, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, and aim for a powerful role in a future government led by a hand-picked successor.
Although less likely, Chavez could also push for more radical policies to weaken old institutions or nationalize the banks in a an attempt to make his legacy irreversible.
Chavez has always billed his project as a "democratic revolution" so any attempt to stay in office without an electoral mandate would be difficult to sustain. He would quickly lose legitimacy at home and in Latin America.
