THREE-PEAT? The Pittsburgh Steelers are looking for their third win of the year over the Baltimore Ravens in this Sunday’s AFC Championship. (Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
The defending champion New York Giants lost at home to divisional rival Philadelphia in a shocker last week. Only one of the five teams with 12 or more regular-season wins made it this far—three out of four home teams lost last week. Most prognosticators are sub-.500 in the postseason so far.
The quarterback factor has an interesting twist this week. Three of the four starting quarterbacks are veterans of Super Bowls, while the fourth is a rookie. Arizona’s Kurt Warner, while with St. Louis, won nine years ago then lost seven years ago. Philadelphia’s Donovan McNabb lost four years ago, and Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger won three years ago. In contrast, Baltimore’s Joe Flacco turned 24 on Friday and started his first NFL season on the bench.
The game has changed over the years, and the old saying that a QB needs five years in the league to learn how to win is obsolete (Roethlisberger won his Super Bowl in his second season, before he turned 24). But experience at this position is still often decisive in big games.
Let’s look at the games, which feature two #6 seeds that made it into the playoffs on the last day, plus the winner of the NFL’s weakest division. The win-loss records are regular season only.
Philadelphia Eagles (9–6–1) @ Arizona Cardinals (9–7)
Sunday, 3:00 p.m. EST
Somehow the teams with the two worst records among NFC playoff teams thrived against opposition with better numbers. The Arizona Cardinals, who were 3–7 during the regular season against teams not in their division, wiped out the South division (Atlanta and Carolina, that is) in the playoffs to earn the home field in this game. Their 51 touchdowns tied for second in the league, but their +1 net regular season points reveal an often-leaky defense.The Philadelphia Eagles have been a Jekyll-and-Hyde team all year. They’ve had big wins and big losses. The two-game sequence in November—Baltimore 36, Philadelphia 7 followed by Philadelphia 48, Arizona 20—tells the tale. The Eagles had a +127 advantage in net points over regular-season opponents. They have the most disruptive defense in the league, aside from the two playing in Pittsburgh on Sunday.
Pick: PHILADELPHIA
Baltimore Ravens (11–5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (12–4)
Sunday, 6:30 EST
The Ravens don’t look or act like a #6 seed. They have the league’s #2 defense and a very healthy +141 in net points. After squashing Miami and squeaking by top-seeded Tennessee on a last-minute field goal, they are looking to avenge their two close losses to the division-champion Steelers.Baltimore’s defense was second only to Pittsburgh’s, which came close to setting per-game and per-play records for fewest yards allowed in various categories. They limited the hot San Diego Chargers to only 15 yards rushing last week. After 31–0 and 35–24 victories in their past two games, the Steelers’ offense, particularly the ground game, is rounding in to top form.
Too much ink has been spilled about how the two teams hate each other, and also the canard that it’s hard for one team to beat another three times in one season. True, Baltimore would have won the division and had a bye if they had beaten Pittsburgh just once in the regular season. But they did not, and when one team has another’s number, the trend continues more often than not.
Pick: PITTSBURGH
