The Chinese Communist Party’s inability to govern effectively will bring its collapse within the next year or so, says author and analyst Gordon Chang.
Chang said in a Nov. 9 interview on Ontario’s public media station TVO that he predicted in his 2001 book, The Coming Collapse of China, that it would take about 10 years for the Chinese regime to collapse. We could be talking about China as the world’s next failed state at this time next year, he added.
“In China you can see all the elements moving in the wrong direction,” Chang said.
Pointing to the scandals and factional infighting leading up to the 18th Congress and the leadership transition, Chang said that many people wonder whether the Communist Party will be able to keep things together.
“You have to go back to the beginnings of the Peoples’ Republic to see a problem as big as this one,” Chang said. “At this point there are no elders really to enforce discipline, there’s no Mao Zedong, no Deng Xiaoping, no strong man to basically keep the fighting in bounds.”
Addressing the Party’s loss of legitimacy and need for reform, Chang pointed out that the exposure of the alleged fortunes accumulated by Xi’s and Wen’s families, the Bo scandal, and the rampant corruption by officials have delegitimized the Communist Party in the eyes of the populace. People have lost faith in the Party with each allegation, not just of corruption, but of the licentiousness, murder, and treason, which have all eroded away the Party’s legitimacy, Chang said.
“This is the time when China really needs reform, but reform and structural change will be off the agenda … and that really is the problem for China right now … and the Communist Party is in no position to see structural change go forward,” Chang said.
Every time there is a leadership change, Chinese people get their hopes up that there might be some improvement, only to find that the new guys are really basically as bad or worse than the old ones, Chang said, adding, “What these people stand for … we are seeing an affirmation of the status quo.”
However, economic realities and the changing Chinese society will be unavoidable driving factors in China’s direction, regardless of the Party’s preference, according to Chang.
Party conservatives certainly want no change, yet something clearly needs to be done, he said, as the economy clearly is stumbling, with the economic growth actually closer to zero percent or 1 percent than to the Party’s proclaimed 7 percent, if other economic data, such as power usage, are used to determine growth. The Communist Party’s legitimacy is dependent on continually delivering economic growth and prosperity, and the economic statistics are troubling, Chang said.
In Chang’s opinion, changes in Chinese society will also push against the Party.
“Most people believe that a one-party-system is no longer appropriate for China’s modernizing society, and that is a fundamental problem that the Communist Party can’t get over,” he said.
A new assertiveness is manifesting in the Chinese people and is demonstrated by the environmental protests and the regime’s acquiescence to the protesters’ demands. The people see leaders walking away with billions, and this fuels their anger, Chang said.
“Clearly what we see is a deterioration in the ability of the Communist Party to govern.”
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Editor’s Note: When Chongqing’s former top cop, Wang Lijun, fled for his life to the U.S. Consulate in Chengdu on Feb. 6, he set in motion a political storm that has not subsided. The battle behind the scenes turns on what stance officials take toward the persecution of Falun Gong. The faction with bloody hands—the officials former CCP head Jiang Zemin promoted in order to carry out the persecution—is seeking to avoid accountability for their crimes and to continue the campaign. Other officials are refusing any longer to participate in the persecution. Events present a clear choice to the officials and citizens of China, as well as people around the world: either support or oppose the persecution of Falun Gong. History will record the choice each person makes.