VANCOUVER—With Canada’s foreign-born population increasing approximately four times faster than the rest of the population, whites could become the visible minority in Toronto in 20 years, a new Statistics Canada study finds.
The visible minority population of Toronto is projected to double from 2.3 million in 2006 to almost 5.6 million by 2031. Over the same period, the rest of Toronto’s population is expected to increase by only about eight percent.
Toronto’s South Asian population, the largest visible minority group in the area as of 2006, could triple from 718,000 to 2.1 million, representing 24 percent of the city’s population.
Two contributing factors would be a high volume of South Asian immigrants and a higher fertility rate than many other visible minority groups, Stats Can said.
The Chinese population in Toronto would likely remain the second largest visible minority group. Their numbers are expected to increase from 510,000 to 1.1 million, mainly as a result of immigration.
Chinese immigrants have one of the lowest fertility rates among all visible minority groups in Toronto. Although their numbers will almost double by 2031, their proportion of Toronto’s population would rise modestly, from 10 percent to about 12 percent.
The trend of proliferation of visible minorities also prevails in Vancouver and Montreal.
In Vancouver, Chinese will remain the largest minority group, accounting for 23 percent of the overall population by 2031. Vancouver’s visible minority population is projected to double from 910,000 in 2006 to just over 2 million by 2031.
Montreal’s visible minority population is also expected to increase, rising from 604,000 in 2006 to just over 1.5 million by 2031, with blacks and Arabs being the largest minority groups.
Canada's black and Filipino populations, which were the third and fourth largest visible minority groups in 2006, could also double in size. The Arab and West Asian groups could more than triple, the fastest growth among all groups.
Between now and 2031, the foreign-born population of Canada could increase approximately four times faster than the rest of the population, reaching between 9.8 million and 12.5 million, depending on various immigration trends.
Stats Can found that by 2031, more than 71 percent of all visible minority people would live in Canada's three largest metropolitan areas: Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal.