Transnistria

Lying between the Dniester River and Moldova’s border with Ukraine, Transnistria has long been seen as a potential flashpoint for conflict.

The Western gravitational pull has been dominant since the overthrow of the communist ruler, Nicolae Ceausecsu, almost 25 years ago. But there is a strong Eastern undertow, as shown by the return to office in 2012 of the successor party to the communists, the Social Democrats (PSD), in parliamentary elections. Polls suggest that its abrasive leader Victor Ponta is likely to be elected president of Romania in November. He seeks a strategic partner in the east – but he courts China, not Russia.

After days of heightening tensions and increasingly aggressive rhetoric, Russian president Vladimir Putin requested, and was promptly granted, authorisation to deploy Russian troops in Ukraine until the situation there had “normalised.”

Crimea: the struggle within Ukraine, between Ukraine and Russia, and between Russia and the West, raises the key question about Russia’s larger game plan.