fx reserves

Financial markets reacted first. China’s stock market is down 22 percent this year.

China’s central bank probably regrets having released this data point: Some analysts estimated Chinese intervention in the currency markets in January was as high as $185 billion.

One thing leads to another.

The only thing China had to wait for was the official inclusion into the IMF’s reserve currency basket. Now it can devalue its currency as it pleases—and it may not have a choice.

China seemed to have caught a break in October, but capital outflows came back in full force in November.

Earlier data suggested an inflow of $11.4 billion, but that’s not the full picture.

Official or unofficial, capital is still moving out of China

The digital currency provides a secret way for ordinary Chinese to get money out of the country.

And this estimate could even be flattering.